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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (10601)	7/15/2003 5:41:48 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95487

Semiconductor Equipment . . . Timothy Arcuri at Deutsche Bank raised his 2004 earnings estimate and stock price target following Applied Materials's "well-attended" analyst meeting. The stock is rallying 46 cents, or 2.5 percent, to $18.60. He now expects the company to earn 52 cents a share in 2004, up from 41 cents, and now has a target of $23 on the stock, up from $20. Arcuri said management's tone was "more bullish than prior commentary," suggesting signs of an early cyclical recovery in the second half of 2003. ASML Holding was upped to Overweight from Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley Europe. While the firm believes 2nd quarter results have some downside risk, thinks that orders are likely to improve sequentially in 3rd quarter and 4th quarter and that 2nd quarter backlog will mark the low pt for this cycle. AG Edwards raised their target on Helix Tech to $20 from $15 due to their reinforced expectation that the semiconductor equipment business is stable. Also, firm believes there is a move to seek more attractive valuations than currently found at Applied Materials, for example, and HELX, with its good balance sheet and strong mgmt is a prime candidate. Semiconductors . . . Merrill Lynch expected Microchip to meet firm's estimates when 1st quarter earnings are reported, while offering a conservative 2nd quarter forecast of 3% revenue growth quarter/quarter to $167 million. While considers MCHP a well-diversified company, believes that at 42x 2003 estimate and 36x 2004 estimate, stock is fully valued. MCHP is scheduled to report July 17. USB Piper Jaffray analyst Ashok Kumar issues comments on the Gigabit Ethernet market. The firm believes that INTC will dominate the Gigabit Ethernet segment and that Broadcom will likely leverage its WLAN and server chipset portfolio to grow share. Kumar also believes that Marvell Tech remains the loser in this shakeout, and will increasingly depend on a deep cyclical sector and mature segment (HDD) for growth. MIPS Techs started with a Buy at B. Rile and $4.75 target. The stock is trading at 1.5x cash and 1.4x book, firm feels that the shares are an attractive value. In addition, firm expects new MIPS-based applications and design wins like Sony's new PlayStation Portable, DTV, VoIP, and smart cards to help drive the company's top-line recovery. Rambus was upped to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley. The upgrade is based on firm's view that RMBS will succeed in overcoming the brunt of the charges that the FTC is bringing against it. At a minimum, firm believes the FTC will be unable to restrict RMBS' right to DDR SDRAM royalties. Estimates that RMBS could soon be in the position to collect as much as $420 million per year in DDR royalties alone (at the RAND royalty rate of 3.5%). At RMBS' 32% tax rate, this represents $286 million in after tax cash flow, or $2.71 per share. Firm's new price target of $37.50 is based on a 15x P/E on a $2.50 EPS target. AMD will report 2nd quarter 2003 earnings after the market close on July 16, and will host a conference call at 5:30pm ET. Analysts forecast revenues to come in at $615 million, down 13.9% Quarter over Quarter, in line with the June 25 pre-announced figure. Estimate a loss per share at $(0.59) versus $(0.42) in 1st quarter. No guidance on the bottom line was provided and consensus is at $(0.54). AMD’s 2nd quarter 2003 shortfall confirmed that it lost share in the microprocessor market, due to a less competitive product offering and the accelerated shift from desktops to notebooks driven by Intel’s Centrino push. Estimate AMD's overall microprocessor share declined to 15.7% in 2nd quarter from 16.6% in 1st quarter, and expect its share to be flat in the third quarter. Forecast AMD’s 3rd quarter revenues to increase 6.9% Quarter over Quarter to $658m and expect loss per share to improve to $(0.49). Analysts have factored in a normal seasonal increase in microprocessor shipments, based on our motherboard checks and the fact that almost 90% of AMD's MCP shipments are for desktops. Expect weakness in flash as Intel recoups some of its lost share, negatively impacting both units and pricing. Analysts have excluded the financial impact of the new AMD-Fujitsu JV that was inaugurated this week, and will wait until AMD provides details in the earnings release before adjusting our model. Though reported flash sales could approximately double on AMD's financials, expect minimal impact to earnings. The JV restructuring changes little from an economic standpoint. Maintain a Peer Perform rating on AMD. Although the valuation of AMD shares appears attractive at 1.1x current book and 1.3x end-2003E book value, analysts prefer not to take a more positive view on the stock until we see success with the Athlon-64. In addition, do not expect the company to return to profitability until 4th quarter 2004, and forecast book value per share to erode to $4.72 at end-2004. RobBlack.com MarketWrap: robblack.com

To: Return to Sender who wrote (10601)	7/16/2003 12:56:13 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95487

RtS, Right now there doesn't seem to be any news that will "temper" the advance of the semi-equips. INTEL didn't raise their cap ex budget, but as you point out - AMAT was trading substantially higher in after hours(as well as other semi-equips I might add). AMAT up about 50 cents, and KLAC up about 1.30 and NVLS up about a dollar. Even TER which beat consensus earnings by 0.02, but guided lower for the 3rd quarter is up about a nickel. Like they say - "you can't keep a good stock down".:) Don