SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : Full Disclosure Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (6383)7/15/2003 8:18:22 PM
From: Sam Citron  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13403
 
late Jan '04 - the sheering stalls will welcome bond holders who will see that Mr. Greenspan cannot keep rates low because of the usual culprits - trade deficit, budget deficit, costly low-level wars raging in a several places, and the attendant lower dollar...quite a train wreck

Agree with your higher interest rate forecast, but not sure why you would characterize it as a train wreck. Sure it will make our mounting deficits harder to pay off, but isn't reflation the best policy option the Fed has at this point. I mean, it sure beats deflation, doesn't it? Would it be so terrible to see moneymarket rates at 5% again? And the stock market normally is not spooked by a whiff of higher rates as long as they aren't too high.



To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (6383)7/15/2003 8:40:03 PM
From: Sam Citron  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13403
 
As I reread your post, I see that perhaps you are saying that the "train wreck" will be caused by the deficits, costly foreign wars, and the lower dollar rather than by the reflation. Still curious about the scenario and timing, such as why the bond holders don't get sheared until "late Jan. '04".