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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (105706)	7/15/2003 11:27:31 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Carl, 38 billion barrels at 70 million barrels a day is 500 days or 1.5 years give or take a bit. That's quite an addition to the energy supply. A bit more than 6 months. I doubt that oil will get much more expensive than it is. Alternatives come on stream at $30 a barrel [coal, heavy crudes etc]. At $40 a barrel oil will lose market share in a big way. At $50 a barrel, all sorts of things happen. At $60 a barrel oil will be struggling for a piece of the action. Then, mid century, the world's human population implosion really gets serious and might round out at about 10% of the current level in 150 years. Or less. Land values will fall heavily. The old idea of limited and therefore valuable beachfront property will be dropped, not only because of fewer people, but because there will be a big comet-caused tsunami which will make people realize that being drowned is not a good idea. But over the next few years, sars will reduce the over 60s population a lot, so the worries about funding pensions will reduce. Contrary to popular rumour, it hasn't been eradicated. It has been morphing into something more malevolent and harder to get rid of. I think a bit of oil is the least of our worries. Then there are the amazing cyberspace and technology opportunities [including biotechnologies]. By 2099, the idea of fighting in Iraq with some medieval mullahs will look like the apes in 2001 A Space Odyssey. Mqurice