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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Icebrg who wrote (8839)	7/16/2003 1:39:58 PM
From: Biomaven	Respond to of 52153

<CBST> Well I had been playing a straddle (actually a strangle - where do they get these names?) which didn't pan out when the coin fell on its edge (3 months delay). But fortunately the stock had advanced enough so that my calls were still in the money, so I exercised and held. From this you can see that I think they will get approval and hence that the stock is fairly cheap here. OTOH, the head of a very large biotech VC fund once told me - "it's easy to make money in public biotechs - just short all trial results and FDA deadlines." Actually it would be interesting to do a study to see if this is correct - the basic idea is that most approvals/favorable trial results are already largely in the stocks, so the downside moves are greater than the upside potential. But it's the sort of thing that memory distorts - those times you get burned make a much bigger impact on one than all the times you don't. Peter