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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DiB who wrote (130209)	7/16/2003 2:54:41 PM
From: slacker711	Respond to of 152472

When does the vendor to operators handset sales number for the quarter become "official"? They give an estimate during the conference call (last quarter's estimate was 25 million), but the official number has a one quarter lag. They havent received all of their royalty reports by the time of the earnings report. For a couple of quarters in a row, Qualcomm has been shipping more ASIC's than handsets are being sold to vendors. I really hope that this is the quarter that reverses that trend. Slacker

To: DiB who wrote (130209)	7/16/2003 3:14:51 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 152472

"Official" Handset Unit Sales DiB, << When does the vendor to operators handset sales number for the quarter become "official"? >> Never. <g> "Estimates" are generally all over the place. Research agencies start giving their "estimates" of sell-in (vendor to operators) or sell-thru (sales to end users) about 30 days after earnings statements conclude, and filter in for some 30 days after that. Very highly regarded Gartner-Dataquest generally last in, about 45 to 60 days out but publicly they report sell-thru. I personally consider them to be "official," but in reality there is no such thing. Sell-in estimates last year varied from 400 million to 480 million (Per Lindberg of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein aka DWK) who persistently accuses all vendors, and particularly Nokia of sandbagging although Nokia's sell-thru estimates last year were higher than most of their competitors - but lower than most agencies. Nokia reported 405 million exclusive of iDEN and Gartner Dataquest reported 423.4 million exclusive of iDEN. Motorola generally gives their estimate of both sell-in and sell-thru at earnings time, but reported neither this quarter. Samsung often will give a sell-in % estimate but didn't yesterday. Obviously there is a lack of visibility. Nokia's estimate is always sell-thru, never sell-in. Sony Ericsson, who had a good quarter (albeit sans profitability) estimated sell-in at 105 million for the quarter. That's probably at least 5 to 10 million low, but a good starting point. All vendors generally report their market estimate lower than what the research agencies report somewhat later but the agencies do have the luxury of greater visibility due to more elapsed time to verify shipments, and in this uncertain market no handset or chipset vendor wants to present too rosy a picture of what's transpiring. They ALL were severely tainted for doing that in 2001, looking ahead to a turnaround that never happenned. Best, - Eric -