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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sea_biscuit who wrote (428072)	7/16/2003 6:34:56 PM
From: Doug R	Respond to of 769670

That's a difficult question. It comes down to what constitutes a failure. Despite the perception given in my thread header that I run entirely on technicals, I do actually put some weighting on fundamentals. As far as the fundamental picture of US government debt is concerned...on a global basis...in relation to shifting currency valuations in regard to the EU, China, the Dinar, oil, gold, the role of the Fed, overall global debt structure as related to derivative balance/imbalance, whether or not the "war on terror" is real or just an artifice for narrow concerns, population shifts out of developed into developing countries and the mortality rates associated with same, demographics on a hemispheric basis in relation to basic need of the larger representative demographic, the 10 year forward look for the most influential demographic both worldwide and in Asia...as all this relates to the possible collapse (some would say "readily apparent" instead of "possible")of the supply/demand capital outlay bubble which presently sees very little realistic support of acceleration on the demand side for those 10 years, is measured against what Alan Greenspan has actually rightly pointed out as the resiliency of the US economy. All these things are relative. "Resiliency" is certainly relative. One relative thing to keep in mind is that if the Fed lowered rates from the present % to 0, that would be an infinite rate decrease. Infinite's pretty damn stiff...relatively speaking. A 1/4% cut from here would actually be a 25% cut. Wow...a % cut that actually shows exactly what kind of sentiment is behind it. The last 1/4% was a 20% reduction so that was nearly as truly reflective of the measure taken. Go back to any other 1/4% or even 1/2% reduction and you'll see that the actual cut did not come close to this latest 1/4% in terms of real difference. The whole point is...there's a damn solid trend in place, and the last move showed an acceleration in the direction of the trend, and the short term fluctuation we've seen so far is no technical signal to expect a trend reversal...imo. Doug R