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To: Bill Cotter who wrote (39917)7/17/2003 1:08:20 AM
From: Johnny Canuck  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 72014
 
Thanks Bill,

I will check it out this weekend when I have more time.

From a practical perspective WiFi and Bluetooth chips is still a small part of RFMD revenues. On top of that the gross margin on those chips is lower than RFMD traditional
amplifiers from handset.

Right now RFMD's problems is that they do not have the
volume in their amplifiers and other chips to profitably produce chips. They are in a market segment that see
average selling price declines of 10 percent a quarter.
In a weak demand envrionment customers will try to demand
even more of a price break. RFMD is making part of that up
by transitioning to higher density fab facilities, but
you can only offset the ASP decline so much on efficiencies
alone. At some point you need increased demand. Also the
migration to higher density fabs require a large amount of
capital and you can only do it so fast. I have not
had a chance to hear the earnings conference call, but
so far it look like demand is weak though stable.

I like RFMD long term, but I would take my time scaling in.
It's large ramp in order does not start to new qaurter as
manufactures gear up for the the Christmas sales season.

KOPN also is showing a lot of life based on the anticipated
improvement in handset sales. It may not happen this qaurter if RFMD guidance is any indication. KOPN also has a cyberdisplay contract for the department of national defense that might improve profitability given it low revenue in absolute dollar terms. Unfortunately, it will be
a short term revenue generator as the upgrade cycle will
not be the long. I am more interested in their blue LED
facility they are starting to ramp. KOPN still has
all the right ingrediant. I have no idea where they
can get sufficient volume in these 3 catagories to finally
be cashflow positive.



To: Bill Cotter who wrote (39917)7/27/2003 2:22:26 AM
From: Johnny Canuck  Respond to of 72014
 
Investors Didn't Pass On IPass, Boosting Shares 33% In IPO
Friday July 25, 10:09 am ET
By Mike Angell

Investor's Business Daily

A tech company that connects remote workers to their firms' networks went public today as investors saw opportunity in the growing number of mobile employees.

IPass Inc. saw its shares rise 33% to 18.67 during its initial public offering of 7 million shares. The Redwood Shores, Calif.-based company, now valued at $1 billion,hopes to capitalize on the boom in wireless networking - and a market hungry for new stocks.

Faced with an often bewildering array of networking technologies, customers say IPass' software and service make connecting to corporate networks a little easier.

"We're funneling a lot of requests to IPass for service," said Evan Miller, an information technology manager for chipmaker Texas Instruments. "More of our employees want to tap TI's networks from home or on the road."

'Very Responsive'

According to many estimates, the number of people who work outside the office is large and growing. Various research firms peg the number of U.S. workers who are on the road, or work from home or remote offices, at 78 million to 90 million.

Because of security concerns, most companies are loath to link those employees to their internal networks over the Internet. So mobile workers must set up complex software to connect to company networks.

That's where IPass comes in. Companies like TI contract with IPass to let remote employees connect to the internal network through dial-up, broadband or wireless.

Miller says almost a third of TI's 35,000 employees have access to its internal network. All of those workers use IPass.

Miller has been happy with the service.

"IPass is very responsive when problems arise," he said.

The software sits on the desktop computer or laptop. It verifies who's connecting to the network, and helps set up security. IPass also cuts deals with telecom networks to make the service available in particular regions. It bills customers per minute of use.

IPass' 2002 revenue rose 74% from a year earlier to $92.8 billion. Earnings for the same period went from a loss of $2.43 a share to a profit of 57 cents a share, largely from an income tax refund after four years of losses.

During the first six months of 2003, IPass has been profitable without the benefit of tax refunds. That's mainly due to lower costs for buying access on networks and more users signing up for the service.

In the U.S., IPass mostly buys network access from MCI. In Europe, Netherlands-based Equant provides most of the network connections.

Most IPass revenue still comes from customers who connect via dial-up modems. Matthew Robison, an equity analyst with Ferris, Baker Watts Inc., says the dial-up market is mature. The major opportunity lies in connecting to broadband networks, particular wireless or Wi-Fi networks.

There are about 14,000 public Wi-Fi networks in the U.S. The number is expected to increase almost tenfold in the next two years.

Those Wi-Fi networks represent a tremendous way for companies to connect workers on the road. But it's a hassle to set up a secure connection. A user might get a different log-on page or different format each time he connects to different Wi-Fi networks.

But IPass lets users get the same start-up screen when they connect to any Wi-Fi network. International Data Corp. analyst Keith Waryas says IPass makes Wi-Fi service more palatable for businesses with employees in the field. Instead of having to deal with any one of the 200 or so Wi-Fi network operators out there, IPass provides one sign-in screen.

Different Approaches

"If I'm an executive on the road, I'm going to be leery of any public Wi-Fi connections," Waryas said. "I don't know what kind of security they might be using. I don't know where my credit card numbers may be going."

IPass has gotten some of the major names in Wi-Fi to make the service more widely available. It's working with Intel to include IPass software on Intel's line of Wi-Fi chipsets.

Network gear maker Cisco Systems, which owns a stake in IPass, resells IPass service and software to its customers.

IPass' main competitor is GRIC Communications Inc. It too has been trying to stake its place in the Wi-Fi market. It cut a deal with AT&T Corp., which will resell GRIC service to customers connecting to Wi-Fi networks.

Robison, who covers GRIC, says the two companies have had different approaches. IPass has mostly targeted business customers directly, while GRIC cuts deals with carriers.

He says GRIC may copy IPass' strategy by going after business customers, since IPass has seen much stronger results.

"IPass looks to be very profitable," Robison said.