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Strategies & Market Trends : Trading with Jerry Olson(OJ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (1116)	7/20/2003 11:09:49 AM
From: Jerry Olson	Respond to of 1617

JERRY OLSON'S "POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER DATED JULY 7TH 2003 "POWERFUL COUNTER TREND RALLY" Hi everyone...came back from the Jersey shore feeling rested and renewed..Geez what a wonderful weekend of hot weather, great seafood, fabulous wine, and just sitting and taking in all the sites...It was awesome to say the least... I quickly went thru all my daily candle charts(DCC), and saw an amazing powerful bullish engulfing candle today on all indexes. The current run up is powerful and meaningful for now. I have projections below as we discuss each index. The current Bullish Percents of all indicators are still Bullish..Nothing has changed since last we spoke. The Percent of stocks above their 10 week moving averages is in a column of O's on the NYSE and OTC... I really ignore this reversal. I want to see the next set of indicators reverse down and that would be the Hi Lo Index on both the OTC and NYSE..When that happens then we'll take evasive action... For years I have preached to play "CABOOSE"..like in train<G>...Look we are not good enough to speculate, predict, or guess what this market is going to do in the next 30 days..We have no crystal ball..I have said this a million times before folks...We only need to "follow" along merrily and make what ever trades we attempt profitable and solid in our thinking...So we trade the current trend without worrying about all the other pundits out there...Sure I'm cautious here...we are substantially overbought..I have told you we can stay that way for weeks or months..Well guess what? This market does not want to go down yet. They have this euphoric feeling about the future that has propelled the market higher and higher... What is so discouraging is this, the problem will correct soon and it will become a crash! a disaster for the longs, or shall I say trapped BULLS...Why? well when I look at the total picture of all the sectors they are currently at 71.53% or shall I say 100% overbought...At the March 10th lows they were right at 30%...or 100% oversold...You got that picture? This is real trouble ahead... And yes it can keep on trucking here if they wish to put the last person in here at THE TOP!!! the suckers buy here...step right up to the window. WE BOUGHT AT THE MARCH LOWS. Has the time come for a correction? not as I see it..why? None of the Bullish Percents on the main indicators have turned down yet... We must see the hi lo index move lower along with the percent of 10, then the OPTI BP reverse down..then? we will short this market with both hands full of money.. Till that time actually happens we stay long, using trailing stops...I caution you to be ultra careful here as we are above nosebleed territory. If a major stock warns then the market is ultimately vulnerable to a large selloff... They will bail like no tomorrow..Unless you have and exit strategy in place...your dead meat...The bagholders will be standing there saying, what happened? Heck we'll be long gone<g> Look go to cash each night during earnings season..Let's just trade this time period like pros... What usually happens is this:, we run up on which ever stock is reporting on the "hope springs eternal" part of the euphoria...we take it long and sell it 1 day before eps...why?, they always "sell the news"...DO NOT HOLD OVER EARNINGS..I AM TELLING YOU FORGET IT...THE RISK REWARD IS TERRIBLE...YOU'LL GET KILLED...LOOK I SPEAK FROM YEARS OF DOING THIS EXACT TRADE...WE PLAY THEM LONG AHEAD AND THEN BAIL IN FRONT OF THAT DATE...TAKE THE MONEY AND RUN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! =============================================================================================== OK LET'S CHECK THE INDEXS AND SEE WHAT THEY COULD DO OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.. DJIA--DOW---FOLKS THIS IS EASY...9400 IS THE BREAKOUT(B/O) BUY SIGNAL...8800 THE SELL SIGNAL...SET ALERTS ON ALL THESE NUMBERS HERE AND BELOW...TARGET WAS 9450/9500.. COMPX---PENT UP BUYING TODAY AMAZING POP...B/O AT 1700 TODAY GOING HIGHER...1660 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN(3BXRVDN)...1580 IS DEATH FOR THIS INDEX...I HAVE A 1750 TARGET..ALWAYS DID... SOX---BROKE A DOUBLE TOP(DT) AT 390 TEST OF THE RECENT HIGHS AT 410 IS COMING..420 IS BLOW OUT NUMBER FOR THE RUSH TO THE CLOUDS. THE BP SEMI AS OF JULY 3RD IS AT 73.98 WE'LL SEE WHAT IT IS TOMORROW...72 IS REAL TROUBLE FOR THIS SECTOR..YOU GOT THAT?... NDX---HELD A RECENT TRIPLE BOTTOM AT 1190, BUYERS SHOWED UP WITH BOTH FIST AND MOVED THIS INDEX UP WITH A VENGEANCE. TOOK OUT THE RECENT HIGHS AT 1260 AND LOOKS AWESOME HERE..IF YOU UNDERSTAND HOW TO USE THE PROJECTION TOOL...YOU TAKE THE MAY LOWS, JUNE HIGHS, JULY LOWS..THIS INDEX PROJECTS TO 1345..I THINK WE GET THERE EASILY...WE ALREADY HIT THE 61.8% PROJECTION UP... BTK---460 IS THE SPREAD TRIPLE TOP B/O MIGHT GET THIS INDEX TO 485..WE NEED IT<G>!...EXCELLENT SUPPORT(S) AT 415/410...BPBIOM IS AT 61.44% AS OF FRIDAY WATCHING FOR A REVERSAL BACK UP..THAT WOULD BE COOL.. BKX---THE BANKING INDEX---917 IS THE 61.8% PROJECTION UP, 100% IS 959...900 IS THE B/O BUY SIGNAL... SPX---MAY LOWS, JUNE HIGHS, JULY LOWS, PROJECTS TO 61.8% AT 1024..THE 100% PROJECTION IS AT 1063..THAT LOOKS BETTER TO ME...BIG BULLISH ENGULFING STICK TODAY ON ALMOST ALL INDEXES..VOLUME WASN'T GREAT BUT WHO'S COUNTING... SPU3---THE FUTURES..YOU NEED TO UNDERSTAND HOW WE WATCH AND CALL THESE THRU THE DAY...BULLISH CATAPULT FORMATION, AT 996 TOUCHED 1004.00, 1025 THE 61.8% PROJECTION WITH 1066 THE TOP AT 100%.. ALL IN ALL THIS MARKET WANTS HIGHER...IF YOU'RE LONG USE HARD STOPS... =============================================================================================== QCOM---BREAKSOUT AT 40 BIG TIME..MADE A NICE RUN HERE...40.35 THE BTL(BUY TRIGGER LONG)---39.25 THE SST...I LIKE THIS LONG ON THE BTL...TAKES OUT MAJOR R AT 40... BRCM---READY TO BREAKOUT AS LONG AS THE SOX KEEPS MOVING UP...29.05 THE BTL---28.00 THE SST... KLAC---READY TO ROLL HERE AS LONG AS THE SOX DOES THE SAME..BIG NUMBERS FOR THE PROJECTIONS...50.10 THE BTL---49.00 THE SST(SHORT SALE TRIGGER)... QLGC---HELD A DOUBLE BOTTOM(DB) AT 47 AND BROKE A DT AT 51 TODAY...THIS HAS LEGS FOLKS...52.55 THE BTL---51.45 THE SST SINA---HOLY COW BATMAN---WHAT A SECTOR..THE ASIA INTERNETS..UNREAL MOVES OVER THE LAST 2 WEEKS..WE'VE BEEN TRADING THIS BEAUTIES...25.10 THE BTL---23.95 THE SST... IIJI---ARE YOU KIDDING ME? WE SAW IT AT 6.00 BUCKS LAST WEEK AS GREENEHUGH BROUGHT IT TO OUR ATTENTION..IT'S DOUBLED IN 3 DAYS?...BIG VOLUME TODAY..NUTS RIGHT?....13.00 THE BTL---11.95 THE SST... CHINA---WHOA BABY...BROKE OUT AT 9.00 SITTING AT 10.26..VOLUME IS SOLID AS A ROCK...10.65 THE BTL---9.80 THE SST... VNWI---UH OH, IS THIS FOR REAL??? HUGH BUYING STICK ON THE DCC CHART WITH GIANT VOLUME...THE CCI IS AT 400? HAHAHAHAHAHA WAIT FOR A PULLBACK WILL YA?...GOSH!...1.90 THE BTL---1.30 THE SST...LOL.... NTES---WHAT A STOCK FOLKS..EVERY TIME THEY TRASH IT BUYERS SHOW UP BIG TIME...39.60 THE BTL---38.65 THE SST.. I LOVE THIS LONG ON THAT TRIGGER 40 IS THE B/O NUMBER... IVGN---UNREAL CHART EVERYONE...HUGH BREAKOUT ON HIGH VOLUME OVER THE LAST 3 DAYS ON NEWS FROM LAST WEEK...47.35 THE BTL---46.25 THE SST... ================================================================================================ OK THATS IT FOR THIS LETTER...LET'S SEE WHAT HAPPENS TOMORROW...I WOULD BE BUYING ALL PULLBACKS FOR NOW, DO NOT CHASE... THE PASSWORD FOR THE ROOM IS....summerfun ......one word lowercase..see you in the room tomorrow...i have a doctors appointment with my son Steve at 2.00 pm..he has some diabetes problems lately and I need to check it out...please use trailing stops, and continue to scalp... best regards jerry jerry olson www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com jerry.olson@verizon.net