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To: jjstingray who wrote (77576)7/18/2003 3:59:37 PM
From: Perspective  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 209892
 
Maybe I'm not being clear here. That stock just made a new 52-week high four days ago. When I go short it, it will be nowhere near the high. The problem is that you can't tell how high is high. You must await downside momentum, and then fade a bounce to some logical resistance threshold that provides you with a good stop.

I guess if you've got a really good feeling about it, you've at least got the all-time high to stop at, but I'd much rather wait for some evidence of selling pressure. Review some of the topping behavior in 2000:

stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyiay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyiay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G

They will go down for *months*. Go short when you can prove to me there is a downtrend in place, you silly bear. <g>

BC



To: jjstingray who wrote (77576)7/18/2003 5:16:24 PM
From: AllansAlias  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
I agree with Bobcor here. You may well be right, but what is the evidence that the top is in?

Can you make a convincing case for an exhausted count?
Is it at resistance?
Has there been a blowoff top?

These are the sort of questions I would ask if I insisted on top-picking. Much better to wait until you can say "That thing is in a downtrend now."

Cheers