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To: Les H who wrote (8164)	7/18/2003 8:19:20 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29601

From: Larry Tomlinson To: humble1 Posted: July 12, 2003 at 09:21 Subject: Re: Timing is Everything Greetings Dan, I am also focused on that 965 zone. This week It may even be "tested". However the trap may need many more Billions of shares distributed before it springs shut. We may get another run at our year 2003 projected high of 1028 before that occurs. I must CAUTION everyone, last weeks close was the highest Friday close since the bear market rally began 3-12-03. That highest close came at the minus 8th week for the four year cycle turn two high due 9-5-03 +/- 8 weeks making that high a "POTENTIALY" SIGNIFICANT HIGH. I closed out all longs in IRA/401K this week as risk is now increasing to levels that are just higher than an old man can stand. Watch 988, below that level we should test 965 areas, what happens at that test will be critical, fails we hit 915-900 quickly. Odds are that is as low as we go this year. Supports it can go to 1025 +/- 3 pts easily. From the bearish side if you will look at a weekly chart and draw the neckline from the weekly low of 10-09-98 to 9-21-01 you will see price has just "PEEKED" above that trend line. This week if price were to quickly drop below it and close below it risk is extremely high the four year cycle turn two occurred early at the close of 7-11-03. That would open the door to a new low below the 10-10-02 low. I doubt that will happen, odds are that low holds until after fall of 2005. That is how I see it, that 965 area is so critical to which direction we go from here. Commercials in the big SP are betting it goes down from the 990-1010 zone as they have been shorting this zone big time. Best of luck to all, Larry forums.delphiforums.com

To: Les H who wrote (8164)	7/21/2003 5:57:24 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29601

<font size=2> 9-month cycle Schedule: 11-, 22-, and 44-week cycles lows starting from Sep 21, 2001 _ cycle tendencies _ 11-week 22-week 44-week SPX change high low range Sep 21, 01 start start start 965 none Oct 17 green green green 1077 +112 1107 +142 N.A. N.A. Nov 12 yellow green green 1118 + 41 1135 + 58 1053 - 24 82 Dec 7 red yellow green 1158 + 40 1173 + 55 1118 - 0 55 Jan 4, 02 green yellow green 1172 + 14 1176 + 18 1114 - 44 62 Jan 28 yellow red yellow 1133 - 39 1177 + 5 1117 - 55 60 Feb 22 red red yellow 1090 - 43 1138 + 5 1074 - 59 64 Mar 20 green green yellow 1152 + 62 1174 + 84 1074 - 16 100 Apr 15 yellow green yellow 1102 - 50 1156 + 4 1099 - 53 57 May 10 red yellow red 1055 - 47 1133 + 31 1049 - 53 84 Jun 5 green yellow red 1050 - 5 1106 + 51 1030 - 25 76 Jul 1 yellow red red 968 - 67 1050 + 0 953 - 97 97 Jul 26 red red red 853 -115 993 + 25 775 -193 218 Aug 21 green green green 949 + 96 951 + 98 833 - 20 118 Sep 16 yellow green green 891 - 58 965 + 16 870 - 79 95 Oct 11 red yellow green 848 - 55 902 + 11 768 -123 134 Nov 6 green yellow green 924 + 76 925 + 77 804 - 44 121 Dec 2 yellow red yellow 934 + 10 954 + 30 872 - 52 82 Dec 27 red red yellow 875 - 59 934 + 0 873 - 61 61 Jan 22, 03 green green yellow 878 + 3 935 + 60 869 - 6 66 Feb 18 yellow green yellow 851 - 27 890 + 12 806 - 72 84 Mar 14 red yellow red 833 - 18 852 + 1 789 - 62 63 Apr 9 green yellow red 866 + 33 905 + 72 827 - 6 78 May 5 yellow red red 926 + 60 934 + 68 863 - 3 71 May 30 red red red 963 + 37 965 + 39 912 - 14 53 Jun 25 green green green 975 + 12 1015 + 52 963 NC 52 Jul 21 yellow green green 979 + 4 1015 + 40 962 - 13 53 Aug 15 red yellow green Sep 10 green yellow green Oct 6 yellow red yellow Oct 31 red red yellow Nov 26 green green yellow Dec 23 yellow green yellow Jan 16, 04 red yellow red Feb 11 green yellow red Mar 8 yellow red red Apr 2 red red red 22-week cycle Sep 17-21, 01 base low 944 next high 1173 on Dec 06 (week 11) Dec 03-07, 01 11-weeks high 1173 next high 1177 on Jan 07 (week 4) Feb 18-22, 02 22-weeks trough low 1074 next high 1173 on Mar 11 (week 3) May 06-10, 02 11 weeks low 1049 next high 1106 on May 17 (week 1) Jul 22-26, 02 22-weeks trough low 775 next high 965 on Aug 22 (week 4) Oct 07-11, 02 11 weeks low 768 next high 954 on Dec 02 (week 7) Dec 23-27, 02 22-weeks trough low 873 next high 935 on Jan 13 (week 2) Mar 10-14, 03 11 weeks low 789 next high 965 on May 30 (week 11) May 27-30, 03 22-weeks trough high 965 next high 1015 on Jul 14 (week 7) Aug 11-15, 03 11 weeks Oct 27-31, 03 22-weeks trough Jan 12-16, 04 11 weeks Mar 29-02, 04 22-weeks trough Jun 14-18, 04 11 weeks Aug 30-03, 04 22-weeks trough Nov 15-19, 04 11 weeks 26-week Dow cycle troughs Oct 9, 98 Dow 7379 Apr 9, 99 Dow 9826 length 26 weeks Oct 22, 99 Dow 9884 length 28 weeks Mar 10, 00 Dow 9611 length 20 weeks Oct 20, 00 Dow 9571 length 32 weeks Mar 23, 01 Dow 9106 length 22 weeks Sep 21, 01 Dow 8062 length 26 weeks Feb 8, 02 Dow 9580 length 20 weeks Oct 10, 02 Dow 7197 length 35 weeks Mar 12, 02 Dow 7416 length 22 weeks sample size 9 Spring sample 5 Fall sample 4 total 231 weeks total 110 weeks total 121 weeks average 26 weeks average 22 weeks average 30 weeks st dev 2 weeks st dev 1 weeks st dev 3 weeks next approximate Dow trough Aug 13, 03 20 weeks minimum length in sample Sep 24, 03 26 weeks average length in sample Oct 22, 03 30 weeks average length in Fall sample source of dates timeanddate.com </font>