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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (22700)	7/18/2003 5:29:09 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 89467

``I think the intelligence I get is darned good intelligence,'' Bush said. ``And the speeches I have given were backed by good intelligence. And I am absolutely convinced today, like I was convinced when I gave the speeches . . . that our country made the right decision" He truly doesnt get it. it matters not that he was convinced. the country is unconvinced.

To: lurqer who wrote (22700)	7/18/2003 6:04:10 PM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Comments on Zeal. One way or another, before this Great Bear ends, the S&P 500 will trade under 14x earnings and yield over 6% in dividends and will be undervalued by historical standards. Mark my words on this! Either stock prices will plunge dramatically in the next couple of years to get valuations back in line, or stock prices will trade sideways for a decade or more until earnings catch up. There will be no new Great Bull until stocks are really undervalued, period. Hmm...Sorry, but whether "Either stock prices will plunge dramatically in the next couple of years to get valuations back in line, or stock prices will trade sideways for a decade or more until earnings catch up." is true or not is irrelevant to someone who's interested in trading the next couple of years. Adam, while I realize that you may have some LTB&H subscribers, this secular bear market has precluded that being a generally winning strategy for decades. We both know this (and you've gone over it many times) so why the "rehash". Just nothing new to write about this week? Also you've repeated this thought There will be no new Great Bull until stocks are really undervalued, too many times. Like the President's yellowcake, it's not that it's wrong, it's that it is misleading. I agree that a new secular bull (Great Bull in your parlance) won’t begin until after “stocks are really undervalued”. But the way you keep stating this, implies that once stocks do get “really undervalued”., we’re all prepared to start a new secular bull. And that’s just flat out wrong. Extremely low valuations are a necessary, but insufficient condition for the inauguration of a new secular bull. To the best of my ability to understand, that requires the escalating spending of a bubble in the demographic profile. If you check the last secular bear, you’ll find we got to a very low valuation in ’74, corresponding to a plunge in demographic spending. The next secular bull didn’t begin until 8 years later, when a demographically induced spending wave bolstered profits for an extended period. This same pattern can be seen in the previous secular bear. In fact, since I’ve frequently written about this pattern, I’ve gone so far as to label the valuation lows. The first low (under a P/E of 10) in a secular bear, I call Despair. After a long sideways market, the last valuation low, at the start of a new secular bull, I call Disgust. I object to your phrasing, because it implies that the period between Despair and Disgust doesn’t exist. Since this about the future of the market, it is obviously JMO lurqer