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To: Secret_Agent_Man who wrote (251097)	7/20/2003 7:13:25 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

C4T: As I have emphasized many times, lay-offs are the key to where this market is headed. And given the ugly numbers, it isn't a difficult call. There is a waterfall event out there.... probably in the not-too-distant future. Best, Earlie

To: Secret_Agent_Man who wrote (251097)	7/24/2003 8:41:38 AM
From: Secret_Agent_Man	Respond to of 436258

The real Unemployment #'s that no one really cares about workforcesecurity.doleta.gov SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA In the week ending July 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 386,000, a decrease of 29,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 415,000. The 4-week moving average was 419,250, a decrease of 5,500 from the previous week's revised average of 424,750. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.8 percent for the week ending July 12, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 2.9 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 12 was 3,605,000, a decrease of 24,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,629,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,685,500, a decrease of 27,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,713,250. UNADJUSTED DATA The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 423,972 in the week ending July 19, a decrease of 128,072 from the previous week. There were 394,586 initial claims in the comparable week in 2002. The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.9 percent during the week ending July 12, unchanged from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 3,720,738, an increase of 106,457 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.8 percent and the volume was 3,589,337.