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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (36350)	7/20/2003 9:21:42 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hi Ramsey, <<why chl and chu?>> decision is allocation driven, given they are China plays, telecom tainted, making cash, paying div (CHL); <<competition is going to be fierce>> Yes and no, given that there are 260 million subscribers signed on and no matter how churned, plenty to share, and price competition is nothing like what takes place in other parts, whereas useage will keep going up as long as economy holds trajectory. <<cap ex stages long from over>> ... yes, but capex per line-equivalent cost continues to drop, and when Chinese manufacturers get in on the act of GSM infrastructure manufacturing, capex cost will drop even more. GSM network coverage in China is exceedingly good already. I have never been out of touch even while floating between the cliffs of Yangtzi river or travelling between any two cities by road, and I have never experienced a busy line or dropped call. Or, at least not yet:0) I will make a trip starting the 27th to Chengdu, possibly Lhasa, back to Chengdu, and then definitely Chongqin, and between Chengdu and Chonqin by 5 hour car trip, will report on coverage. <<2 new spectrum licenses (or more) most likely soon>> ... good luck to the newbies;0) <<seems like the vendors such as Huawei, ZTE etc could do better>> ... manufacturing may be a mugs game in China where the practice of death-level discount is pervasive. Chugs, Jay

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (36350)	7/21/2003 3:51:24 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Unicom GSM additions decline Saturday, July 19, 2003 technology.scmp.com HUI YUK-MIN A continued slowing in subscriber growth for China Unicom's GSM network last month and a rebound in its CDMA pickup has raised concerns among market-watchers. ABN Amro analyst Helen Zhu said the latest statistics released by China Unicom showed the CDMA (code division multiple access) service was growing at the expense of the GSM (global system for mobile communications) network. "Not surprisingly, GSM additions continued to slow. We think the declining GSM additions is a direct result of both CDMA [growth] and the migration of existing customers from GSM to CDMA," Ms Zhu said. On Thursday, China Unicom said it added 773,000 new GSM users last month, substantially behind the monthly average of 1.03 million users in the first half. It also represents a 6.5 per cent fall from May and was the third consecutive month of decline in growth. However China Unicom's CDMA subscriber numbers grew by 760,000 last month - up 19 per from May. "We believe growth in CDMA subscribers was stimulated by the launch of CDMA?x services [on March 28 in major cities] and the CDMA prepaid [on April 10 in several provinces]," said Jenny Szeto of Daiwa Institute of Research (Hong Kong). Having signed up 3.7 million users for its CDMA network in the first half, China Unicom is still 7.7 million short of its 11.4 million full-year target. Analysts believe the carrier's pending nationwide launch of a prepaid phone card for its CDMA network - a product that targets lower-end users - will help stimulate subscriber growth in the second half. However mosts analysts regard an 11.4 million full-year target as hard to achieve. After seeing its shares surge 31 per cent in the past two months, and trading at a premium over its Asian and emerging market peers, Merrill Lynch believes the stock's upside is limited. The shares rose 0.89 per cent to $5.65 yesterday.