Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (64845)	7/21/2003 9:20:45 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

Well... I'm a believer in fractal markets. It's interesting, though - as the markets become less bubbly, they become more efficient (efficient means you can't make money using TA). This is measured by the Hurst exponent, although that measurement is not perfect. A drunk man travels the distance L = (t) to the power of 1/2. In that case, 1/2, or 0.5 is the Hurst exponent. If H>1/2, we have a trending drunk man (or market -g-). Curiously enough, H is the highest for the nasdaq. It is 0.7 there. For many Dow stocks, it is just 0.53, 0.56, etc - which would mean your chance of winning is close to zero -g-.