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To: skinowski who wrote (77710)	7/21/2003 9:03:49 PM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 209892

Gold - retraced 62% of the previous rally into 5/27/03, and is bouncing. On 60 - 120 min the last down move has the shape and feel of an ED - and the bounce with the break out of the regression channel might be appropriate for an ED. Dunno... will be watching. (haven't seen much of "diagonalisation" talk lately... -g) XAU (60-120 min) since the top on 6/19 traced out a (so far) corrective-looking decline, and the most recent leg up is now overlapping with the previous minor bottoms. Looks like if (IF) the index will be able to move above 80 the bears may have reason to be worried.

To: skinowski who wrote (77710)	7/21/2003 9:20:04 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

<<It seems that buyers are worried about possible rate increases not any less then the sellers.>> Will happen for a short time, maybe 2-3 months. As rates keep moving higher after that, both buyers and sellers will leave the market. Liquidity will exit, and it will be much tougher to move a home (which was why I suggested to AJ to bust a move). Here's another (similar) thought along the same lines by a former CFZ stalwart: Message 19131107