Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (251)	7/22/2003 7:53:26 AM
From: Little Joe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I do agree that Real Estate is more vulnerable than gold to whatever comes. I also think we will see a crash in RE prices at some time. I just think we will not see that happen during the highly inflationary period I think is coming. Little joe

To: russwinter who wrote (251)	7/22/2003 9:01:31 AM
From: Silver Super Bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

RW, RE: "RE and homes are delicate subjects with most people" Yes, I have noticed that many people get irrational and defensive even upon the mention that home values can decline. I think it is because many people have positioned themselves financially upon the assumption that their house is a totally "safe" asset, and if that assumption is challenged, the resulting consequences are almost unbearable to contemplate. DB

To: russwinter who wrote (251)	7/22/2003 10:51:37 AM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Global: Losing Control Stephen Roach (New York) morganstanley.com

To: russwinter who wrote (251)	7/22/2003 11:22:08 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

What is a hard asset? Real estate, for the vast majority, is nothing but a home, a roof over their heads, a lawn to waste weekends on and an address for junk mail. Aside from a periodic opportunity to take out an equity loan for some play things, it has little or no liquid investment value. While it is possible for an investor to move from equities to bonds or gold, it is not likely that a real estate "investor", aka homeowner, will move from real estate to equities. Where are they going to sleep? I think if the rate stays here or move up, the refi cycle is dead and the economy can no longer count on this consumer spending for support. As for real estate, then we need to look at employment to see if it will cool off purchase activity. Once again, tomorrow's MBAA relase should be most interesting to follow.

To: russwinter who wrote (251)	7/22/2003 3:13:19 PM
From: re3	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

<<<until I mention RE's role in the current bubble. chuckle ! i sense many (most) people that we here speak to outside of cyberspace life don't even now think the stock market was a bubble...not opening up brokerage statements helps them live outside this reality... anyway, does anyone here have any off the top predictions as to what percentage real estate might decline from now to a bottom ? i'm wondering if a person can benefit by a factor of 9 by staying out of real estate and renting, i.e. tripling their $ in gold stocks in the next few years and buying a property at 1/3 of the current value at that point ? maybe that is too extreme ?