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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: michael97123 who wrote (107022)7/21/2003 10:22:52 PM
From: Bilow  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
Hi michael97123; Re: "I would agree that we need to have more success in iraq and right now that includes staying power in the face of guerrilla tactics. Talk to me in a month or so. This prediction of yours will then be as ridiculous as your war predictions when you went into hiding."

A month from now is only August 21, and that's way, way, way too soon to see any significant change in the guerilla war, either for the better or for the worse.

-- Carl

By the way, here's some interesting posts from back before it became clear that there were no significant numbers of WMDs in Iraq:

January 22, 2003
Rascal, Neocon and CB say proof [that Iraq has WMDs] is coming. I am hoping. What would your view be if they pinpointed loads of anthrax and small pox and serin etc. Would you change your mind then? Its a hypothetical question. Do you dare answer it? mike #reply-
18477526

January 23, 2003
Is the fact that inspectors not finding WMDs a surprise to anyone on this thread? I dont think so. And does anyone on this thread think that not finding them means they dont exist? I dont think so either. mike #reply-18479297

February 6, 2003
Historically speaking, iraq is about where nazi germany was in the early 30s, except for one thing, WMDs. If Hitler had WMDs when he reoccupied the rhineland, he would have been infinitely more dangerous much earlier. Yes Saddam is a two bit dictator but with an arsenal that makes him a clear and present danger now. #reply-18543629

February 11, 2003
When iraq breaks out all hell will break out in and around israel. The israeli response will be quite harsh particularly if WMDs are used. #reply-18566408

February 19, 2003
Todays reports of a ring of chemical weapons around bagdad is chilling along with the reports of WMDs being stored out at sea in 4 ships being carefully monitored. I hope if true that there are only 4. #reply-18599676

February 23, 2003
There will be casualties in Iraq but they will not be nearly as high as you anticipate unless saddam uses his wmds. Odds are with us, but yes Karen there is danger in action but there is a far greater danger in inaction. #reply-18616956

March 1, 2003
200,000 american troops on the ground. American credibility is at stake. Backing down now may be the beginning of the end for the free, democratic, pluralistic world. #reply-18645923

March 2, 2003
Pulling 200k troops out because iraq killed 10 al samoudis would be a joke. He needs to give up the wmds period or at least start to do that for an american stand down not to be devastating. #reply-18647127

March 4, 2003
Nukes in NK and soon iraq and iran. And the west, once again failing the test to take action while there is still time. Only the US and GB have learned from the past. The rest will be dragged kicking and screaming into this. It wont be lindy bills flowers on the tanks that make them believers--it will be the public viewing of the WMDs once iraq is liberated. It will have a chilling effect on the peace movement and could change the political landscape in europe. Remember the pics of the germans townsfolk at the camps?? perhaps we could bring chirac and schroeder to witness the destruction of saddams wmds. #reply-18654114

March 7, 2003
If it is that horrible it will be because saddam unleashed wmds that kill his own people and invite american or israeli retalliation in kind. In a convention several week war, casualties wont be anywhere near those number imo. #reply-18668401
Also see #reply-18516237

March 14, 2003
Saddam, you have 72 hours to disarm or get out of town. I would demand and accept the surrender of all iraqi units willing to do so and offer them protection. I would publicly warn the iraqis not to use WMD's against our soldiers or their own people. #reply-18699963

I sure hope that Blair lets his career ride on this. It is not as big a gamble as it would first appear. Saddam may still opt out, but more likely the successful war scenario will occur and the proof of saddam crimes and wmds will make Blair a hero in England, not the goat. #reply-18700331

March 20, 2003
In the US, a quick win(results) will give bush and insurmountable lead unless the economy fails to revive. If iraq falls quickly and without much bloodshed, and the most horrific wmds are found and displayed for all to see, do you think it even possible that you might change your mind? #reply-18726741

CBS reporting deep skepticism in pentagon that saddam is alive. They think they got him and that this mornings saddam was a body double. It will take hours to confirm or deny. If saddam in fact dead, once made public could avoid war. Then you could have a junta(colonels not generals) who could invite US in to take out wmds. #reply-18727005

March 21, 2003
Shock and awe will probably lead to attempted use of wmds by iraq imo. #reply-18732765

March 25, 2003
What do you think happened to the wmds then Maurice? If they were destroyed why didnt saddam document it to the inspectors to avoid this war? It is illogical, no??? We do know they keep fine records. #reply-18750054

An alternate source of power as a restraint on US overreach probably is a good thing after of course a dose of reality when the iraq wmds are shown and the iraqi people do celebrate. #reply-18751358

March 27, 2003
WMDs will be used once all hope of international rescue fails. In a perverse sort of way, the world wide opposition to the war are actually aiding our troops, allowing them to advance without facing wmds. #reply-18759991

The iraqi faces looked angry in a palestinian sort of way. Too much hatred--not enough vision for their childrens future. It is so sad and although the west and israel have some culpiblity to be sure, the real failure has been an arab one. Leaders suck. Religious schools teach hate. No wonder they sometime appear to us as zombies. So perhaps we concentrate on victory, removal of wmds, and better conditions for iraqis and stop wringing our hands and feeling guilty. It is just not our fault. But it is our responsibility to <try> to make things better there. #reply-18762082

March 29, 2003
Iraq is going to need a strong interim leader to rally around. In order to give this new leader credibility, the US may very well have to make a quick exit after the wmds are destroyed. ... You are not going to like my next thought--Perhaps this is where the UN, Germans, Russians and do i dare say it, the French may be able to help. They will not have the negative baggage of having fought the "imperial" war against the state of iraq, which is the way many iraqis will see it. So we rid the world of iraqi wmds and they get the credit for the post war successes, if any. #reply-18770459

March 31, 2003
Condor, I care and i hope that world opinion will change after saddam falls and the wmds are first displayed and then destroyed. By the way, if it turns out there are no wmds, although i will be very happy saddam is gone, i will still be among the first to say that the Bush administration had made a FP mistake. #reply-18776891

On the other hand, if it were proved that there were no wmds and the US knew it but proceeded anyway, i would declare our policy wrong headed. I think i am being far more flexible here viewing wmds as the crux of the matter. #reply-18777450

April 2, 2003
Given the general knowledge that must be becoming realized in iraq that saddam is dead, the melting iraq Republican guard will more likely melt away than become terrorists for the defeated regime. #reply-18787034

Nadine,
I think the war will just end. I dont think there will be major terrorism immediately after the war--isolated incidents perhaps by foreign terrorists and fedayeen scum. I think the iraqis will accept what has occurred and give the US a chance. I think DOD plan to turn over interim control to exiles will happen. I think we will shoot for elections in a year. I think we will find and destroy wmds that are in Iraq. If some are in syria, i think they will get an ultimatum. I think we will be out of iraq in one year.
#reply-18789062

April 9, 2003
Turn on the TV and smell the coffee. WMD finds to follow but when it happens you will charge that wmds were planted. Please explain why saddam didnt produce documentation of destruction if there were no wmds. You live in dreamworld while your countrymen lived in hell. They dont live in hell any more and regardless of wmds, that is a good thing. #reply-18816810

Also see #reply-18727949



To: michael97123 who wrote (107022)7/21/2003 11:54:57 PM
From: Dayuhan  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 

I would agree that we need to have more success in iraq and right now that includes staying power in the face of guerrilla tactics.

I agree. Now that we're in, we have to stay in. The people who want us out know this, of course, and they know that they don't have to "win", in the sense of achieving military victory. They just have to make the political cost of staying in higher than the political cost of pulling out. That isn't a terribly comfortable situation to be in, but we can hardly complain: we knew when we started that this was a likely outcome.

The US may not be toothless, but the need to keep a large force in Iraq does substantially limit military options in both Iran and N. Korea.