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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Adams who wrote (24655)	7/22/2003 12:13:01 PM
From: chowder	Respond to of 206184

>>> I would say you are looking at the results of the 'trader' vs 'investor' paradigm. <<< Mark, I would say most people confuse the term "trader" with the term "investor." If any of us plan to sell a stock, we're all traders. Our time frames are different, that's all! Most people think of traders as those you make several trades per day and close their positions every night. A trade to me is based on different time frames. If a stock I'm holding continues to show strength, I'll hold it longer term. I've held PVN for two years now. If a stock looks like it is going to break down, I'll let it go quicker. Sometimes it's 30 minutes, sometimes a day or two. It depends on my losses. I cut my losses short. I'm not going to see a stock of mine drop 20,30, 50% or more. >>> Buffet might say you are confusing price with value. Followers of the stock might say that intrinsic value increased during the time frame your chart illustrates. <<< I would say they are trying to justify poor results. <lol> But, that's just me. I could be wrong. dabum

To: Mark Adams who wrote (24655)	7/22/2003 6:51:48 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Respond to of 206184

Mark, Without going into too much detail here, I think the story on Uncle Warren is much too simplified by quoting "buy great companies and hold them forever." Warren has been a great stock picker, to be sure, but he has also operated by investing the float from his insurance companies. His first hurdle was to take in premiums and beat the returns of the other insurance companies. Apparently he didn't find this very hard (and if you look at some the insurance companies and their investment portfolios you can see why), and the excess of "returns on premiums invested" over "claims paid" became a yearly and renewable cash cow. Not many of us have this advantage. Warren has also done a fair amount of commodity trading and risk arbitrage. He likes to portray himself as a very folksy, old fashioned kind of guy, but the financial reality is pretty different. Lowenstein's book on the guy is great, btw. I don't think it's possible for many (maybe any) of us here to emulate Warren, so it's probably best to look at the other money managers (private and public) and see how they've done. Not too well. But I do believe that if we try very hard, and are brutally honest with ourselves, we can get better and better. I think Dabum's points are very good ones, but I also agree that if you are limited to only one thing in trading, and it can either be a buying & selling system (that is, a system which signals when to buy and when to sell) OR a position and money management system, you have to take the latter. Fortunately, we can have both. As for buying on the right side of the trend, it's absolutely true. But it's so hard to find the trend sometimes, at least to find the fat juicy trend early enough. I don't mind buying managed positions of stocks with significant risk, like RRI and AAR. I'm always on the lookout for another play with RRI, which I bought and sold at the following levels during the last 8 months. (purchases around 11/5/02, sales 1/21/03) 1.73 4.31 1.81 4.40 1.85 4.42 2.41 4.47 (purchases around 1/30~2/5/03, sales 7/1/03): 3.80 6.25 3.73 6.23 4.07 6.19 I don't know where I'll buy RRI again, but since I've made between 50% and 150% so far on RRI with my system, I won't be changing it anytime soon. With RRI trading 4 million shares a day today, there's more than enough liquidity for me to jump in and buy 4-5 times once I feel the sellers are out of the drivers' seats on this one. FWIW, I think that a 4 million share day is not, given the volume this has traded in the past (there was one 30 million share blowoff day) the kind of big volume day that indicates a bottom is forming. But if something like RRI surprises me and begins to turn here, I won't be shy about buying at the $5.50 level and leaving the more courageous buying to those at the craps table. Kb