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Strategies & Market Trends : Trading with Jerry Olson(OJ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (1143)	7/27/2003 6:33:53 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Respond to of 1617

just back from the jersey shore..it was simple wondeful here's my last weeks newsletter..as of now i'll have to go back to posting them 2 weeks later.. ========================================================= JERRY OLSON'S "POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER DATED JULY 20TH 2003 "TO BE OR NOT TO BE" Hi everyone hope this letter finds everyone in good health and spirits... I have looked all the charts of all the major indexes, I have checked the Bullish Percents of the short and long term indicators, and have drawn all the lines for the retrenchments and projections on all the daily candle charts as well... My in-depth analysis has brought me to the conclusion that this market, while looking weaker here off some major cracks in the indexes last week, It's not going away quietly into this cold night. There are still buyers out there putting money to work each and everyday...Yes I see cracks happening and it makes me issue a flashing RED alert to you all. I would rather be safe than sorry since it's our hard earned money that's at stake, not the steak we're barbecuing this weekend. There were several double bottom sell signals on the SPX at 980, the NDX at 1260 and the SOX index at 385. Both futures contracts broke double bottoms as well. I warn you all the line in the sand for the SPX & the SPU3 is 960 PERIOD..You will exit "ALL" longs there and go long the RYDEX Tempest Fund asap as you'll get a shorting play there 2X's the S&P's..You will exit all long sided Mutual Funds as well...going to cash or buying and moving your money to short type funds..I would suggest that the RYDEX Juno Inverse Bond Fund maybe worth a peek as well, as long term interest rates have sold off as yields have broken out on my charts. The Bond Index the DWBOND we watch on P&F has given a high pole warning..Meaning it retraced down over 50% of it's up move..and the next rally up is a shorting opportunity.. Now let's please examine 2 sides of the coin. I call this the "IF" "Then" scenario. If the markets rally this week, there are 2 clear signals to watch for on the SPX and DOW...1020 on the SPX is a quadruple breakout..A major shift from what happened last week...What would that mean? That buyers, or shall I say dips buyers and people just NOW entering the markets are buying without a clue & very late to this game. I am not saying "IF" in fact that does occur that the markets won't rally up on a surprise leg here. The dual action partner would be the DOW breaking 9400 my original target. If this happens in unison then we have a move that could be a sustained one into early August..These indexes and their counterparts must take out the June 6th top..Or it will be "THE" top if we move the other way.. What is so interesting to me, is that even with some stealth selling last week during earnings. I still see money flowing into the markets on these 1-2-3 day pullbacks. I'll discuss that as we move thru the indexes below..Interesting charts and patterns with dynamic projections and retrenchments too..All very IFFY if you ask me<g>... Now the "THEN" part or the flip side of the equation. Any breakdown of 960 on the SPX or the futures SPU3 would seal this markets rally for this time frame..A break of 8800-8850 along with that number for the SPX and this market is burnt toast...Here's the present problem overall The markets sentiment has changed a bit here. It's not as bullish and not as forgiving anymore. INTC's report did little to help the market last week, and I still think MSFT's report was so so, but their forward guidance kind of made up for it. You could see the street was "selling all the news" as stocks ran up in a furious rally from the March lows. Heck profit taking IS allowed. But still the tone is not what we saw before this quarter, and I'm thinking there's an underlying shift in perception and sentiment. We'll know more over the next 2 weeks without a doubt..Remember this please, seasonality is against the long side thru Oct-Nov and usually Aug right thru Sept we move lower rapidly...Will this fall(pun intended) be different? To Be Or Not To Be, that "IS" the question. I would suggest you all check out www.rydexfunds.com and I would not hesitate to use ETF's (exchange traded funds) to trade the short side should we begin the correction. www.ishares.com like SMH & BBH & PPH & HHH etc..even the DIA's SPY and QQQ are ETF's...they can be shorted without an UPTICK, you can buy puts or calls on them, buy them like a stock, use stops etc etc etc..A great way to trade the markets in general. Use them to learn how to trade easily without fear each trading day. These are great vehicles for your trading arsenal. Right now I am in total scalp mode..I sold all longs last week except MO..My STAT calls were awesome as I held them all the way thru July expiration week..In fact I only wish I did it with ALL my long option trades..Gosh what a number THAT would have been..But I say all the time "no looking back". Can't bring it back, so what's the diff? right?...ok let's go on to my technical picture of all the indexes etc.. =============================================================================================== BELOW ARE THE CRITICAL NUMBERS FOR ALL THE INDEXES, BULLISH PERCENT ON SELECTED SECTORS AND RETRENCHMENT(BEARISH) TARGETS & PROJECTIONS(BULLISH) TARGETS ON THE MAJOR AVERAGES. DJIA--INDU--DOW---NICE BIG BULLISH ENGULFING CANDLE ON FRIDAY AFTER A DOJI TOP 4 DAYS BEFORE AND 3 MORE CONSECUTIVE DAYS DOWN TOWARD THE RISING 20 & 40 EMA'S ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART(DCC)...ON P&F IT'S FORMING A SERIOUS TRIANGLE WITH 8950 THE DOUBLE BOTTOM BREAKDOWN. AND ANYTHING BELOW 8850-8800 SENDS IT TO MY 1ST TARGET OF 8500 RIGHT AT THE BULLISH SUPPORT LINE(BSL)...NOW THE 38.2% RETRACE IS AT 8896.00 THE 50% IS AT 8750.00..FOR THE UPSIDE TO EMERGE 9200 IS THE 3BXRVUP 9300 IS THE TRIPLE TOP B/O AND 9400 WOULD BE THE "LOOKOUT B/O SURPRISE" MY ORIGINAL TARGET...PROJECTIONS...9282 IS THE 61.8% FIBO--9435.00 THE 100% AND "WHAT IF" 161.8% 9683.00-------------------NAH!!!!! JUST ONE MORE THING..WHEN YOU MOVE BACK TO THE 100 POINT CHART...9400 IS GREAT--8800 IS NOT TO GREAT<G> TO BE OR NOT TO BE...THAT IS THE QUESTION.. COMPX---LOOKING AT THE DEFAULT CHART ON P&F THIS INDEX JUST LAST WEEK DID A 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN BUT STILL IN A SOLID UPTREND SO FAR. SUPPORT-(S) IS RIGHT HERE. NOW SPEEDING THIS UP A BIT USING THE 10 POINT CHART, WE SEE 1700 WAS THE DB BREAK...1720 THE 3BXRVUP. AND THIS PATTERN "IF" IT HAPPENS "COULD" BE THE BEGINNING OF A SHAKEOUT PATTERN WITH 1780 THE BEARISH SIGNAL REVERSAL..WHEN I SEE IT I'LL BELIEVE IT. NOW THERE'S A KILLER NO NO NUMBER BELOW..1580..THAT WOULD NOT BE GOOD FOLKS...THIS INDEX IS SITTING ON THE RISING 20 EMA DCC AT 1708.00 WITH A SMALL HAMMER ON FRIDAY. 38.2% RET IS 1617.00 50% IS 1566 NO NEED TO GO ANY FURTHER THERE...ON THE UPSIDE..PROJ IS AT 1806 THE 61.8% AND MAJOR B/O ALONG THE WAY...1876 THE 100% WITH...1990 THE STRATOSPHERIC NUMBER IF THIS AND IF THAT HAPPENS. FOLKS IN THE WORLD OF TRADING ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN...ANYTHING... SOX---MADE A LOWER TOP ON A TEST OF 405 A DT LAST WEEK. AND SOLD OFF ON A DB BREAK AT 385 THERE IS NEAR TERM HARD S AT THE BSL LINE AT 370 ALSO THE MIDDLE OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND. 410 THE BIG TRIPLE TOP B/O 415 WOULD CONFIRM IT. THE BP SEMI IS AT 80.49% DOWN FORM 82..BUT THE FULL 3BXRVDN IS AT 78% SO STILL HOLDING WELL HERE. THE SOX HAMMERED FRIDAY AFTER A HARD 3 DAY SELLOFF..IT TOUCHED THE 40 EMA ON THE DCC...OK PROJ TO 61.8% TO 409.78 CLOSE ENOUGH. 431.00 100%...NOT GOING TO VENTURE HIGHER HERE...ON THE RETR SIDE. ALREADY TOUCHED THE 50% ONCE EARLY JULY AND FLEW UP OFF THAT..SO THE 50% IS AT 354.00...THAT COULD BE SOLID S... BTK---THE BTK REV DOWN 3 BOXES TO 460 AFTER MAKING A SECOND LOWER HIGH. IT MUST BREAK 480 THE CHANGE THIS SHORT TERM NEGATIVE TREND. 490 WOULD CONFIRM IT. IT'S CURRENTLY SITTING ON THE 20 EMA DCC..THE BP BIOM DID A 3BXRVUP LAST WEEK TO 66% NICE<G> IT MEANS BUYERS CAME IN AT THE CURRENT LOWS AT 60%..I LOOKED AT THIS AGAIN,,THE BP DID A 1/3 RETRACE DOWN OFF THAT WONDERFUL STRAIGHT UP RUN. HERE'S THE NUMBERS FOR JUST THE BP'S 68% KEEPS IT MOVING UP...58% WOULD REVERSE IT BACK DOWN AND BREAK A BOTTOM..BIG NEGATIVE I HAVE SET MY ALERTS...NOW ON THE DOWN SIDE 455 KEEPS THE INDEX IN O'S 445 IS THE MID OF THE 10 WEEK...PROJ--61.8 IS 490 WELL WELL BIG B/O THERE...514 IS THE 100%...NOW THE RETR--IT TOUCHED THE 50% EARLY JULY LIKE THE SOX..SO 418 IS SOLID S IF IT GETS THERE...AND BREAK OF THAT IT'S ALL OVER... NDX---JUST LAST WEEK BROKE A DB AT 1260. AND THE 1ST SELL SIGNAL SO FAR. 1280 WOULD REV IT UP. AND THEN SIGNAL THE START OF A SHAKEOUT PATTERN. 1320 WOULD BE A BEARISH SIGNAL REVERSAL...AND VERY BULLISH OBVIOUSLY. CURRENTLY THE BP NDX TOPPED OUT AT 90% WAY UP THERE.. SOLD OFF DOWN TO 76% AND GUESS WHAT IT JUST REVERSED BACK UP TO 80% EVEN THRU THIS CURRENT PULLBACK?..INTERESTING HUH?. IT'S SITTING AT 81% RIGHT NOW...PROJ--61.8% 1332.00---100% AT 1386.00..RETR---38.2% IS AT 1285.00 THEN THE 50% IS AT 1168.00.. BKX---MADE A POWERFUL B/O AT 900 TO 920 A TRIP TOP B/O. PULLED RIGHT BACK TO HARD S AT 885..RIGHT TO THE RISING 20 EMA DCC. AND POPS NICELY FRIDAY..900 THE 3BXRVUP---875 THE DB BREAK...PROJ--61.8% 926.00 THE 100% IS AT 954.00--RETR---38.2% IS AT 850.00 AND THE 50% IS AT 828.00... SPX---RAN INTO LARGE O/H R AT THE 1010 3 TIMES SO FAR..SO WE KNOW SELLERS ARE THERE FOR SURE..THE LAST TIME IT SOLD OFF LARGER AND BROKE A DB AT 980 LAST WEEK. WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT A HUGH SIDEWAYS BASE HERE THAT COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY...IT HAS "NOT" RESOLVED ITSELF JUST YET...IT HIT THE RISING 40 EMA AND THE UPTRENDLINE TOO AND BOUNCED A BIT. 995 THE 3BXRVUP---1020 WOULD BLOW THE DOORS OFF THIS INDEX AND THE MARKETS BIG TIME...975 WOULD KEEP IT IN O'S AND MOVING LOWER. THE BP SPX IS AT 77.56 DOWN FROM 82% AND LOOKING AT 76% AS THE REVERSAL BACK DOWN. WATCHING FOR SURE...BTW FWIW..THIS INDEX IS IN A PENNANT FORMATION ON THE DCC SITTING ON THE BOTTOM OF THE TRENDLINE. IT PROJECTS TO 61.8% AT 1014...100% AT 1036.77..THE RETR--IS AT 38.2% AT 957(THATS BELOW MY 960 LINE IN THE SAND CALL)..AND 50% AT 929.00 YOU CAN FORGET THAT FOLKS..IT WOULD BE GOING A LOT LOWER THAN THAT... VIX---JIGGLING FOR WEEKS AT OR NEAR THE BOTTOM..I STILL THINK IT MAY BREAK 20 AND SEND THIS MARKET FLYING...BUT WHO KNOWS HUH? WE'LL WATCH THIS COMING WEEK... SPU3--FUTURES---996 KEEPS IT MOVING UP 976 CERTAIN WEAKNESS THERE...LOOKS JUST LIKE THE SPX CHART RIGHT NOW.. NQU3---NAZ FUTURES---1280 REVS IT UP..1240 KEEPS IT MOVING LOWER..SAME AS THE NDX... ALL IN ALL EVERYONE WE ARE AT A SERIOUS CROSSROADS IN THE MARKETS WITHOUT A DOUBT...I WANT TO REMIND YOU ALL ABOUT THE P&F INDICATORS THE BULLISH PERCENTS(BP'S) BOTH SHORT AND LONG TERM...THE NYSE 10 WEEK IS IN O'S AT 67%..THE HI LO ON THE NYSE(NOW GET THIS) IS JUST UNDER 1.00% AWAY OF REVERSING BACK DOWN..A NEGATIVE EVENT FOR SURE..THE 10 WEEK OTC IS PRECARIOUS AT BEST NEAR A DB BREAKDOWN..AT 73%...HOWEVER ALL THE 3 MAIN BP'S THE NYSE--OTC & OPTI ARE STILL SOLID AS A ROCK HERE ALBEIT LOWER THAN BEFORE...MEANING THEY ARE PULLING DOWN SOMEWHAT HERE...IN NO DANGER OF REVERSING JUST YET... I LOVE CHARTING THE MARKETS BOTH ON P&F AND CANDLESTICKS..THE TOOLS ON QCHARTS(THAT DOG WITH FLEAS SERVICE) ARE IMMEASURABLE FOR US EVEN INTRADAY..GOTTA LOVE THIS BUSINESS FOLKS... =============================================================================================== OK ONWARD AND UPWARD FOR OUR WEEKLY WATCH LIST OF STOCKS TO PLAY...I AM IN TOTAL SCALP MODE UNLESS WE BREAK ONE WAY OR THE OTHER..PLEASE DO YOUR HOMEWORK HERE ON WHAT YOUR PLANNING TO DO IF THIS OR THAT HAPPENS SHORTLY..THIS "WILL" RESOLVE ITSELF WITHOUT A DOUBT... JCOM---WHOA THIS ONE ACTUALLY HAS EPS AH ON MONDAY..IT'S WILD WHOOLEY AND TOTALLY UNPREDICTABLE..JUST LIKE WE LIKE THEM<VBG>...THIS CRAZY STOCK HIT A LOW OF AROUND 42 ON FRIDAY THEN RALLIED UP TO 48? HOLY COW BATMAN...49.15 THE BTL---47.80 THE SST...FASTEN YOUR SEAT BELT BOYS AND GIRLS..WHEW!! NVLS---EPS AH MONDAY..CHART IS WEAK HERE...36.35 THE BTL---34.95 THE SST..I LIKE THAT TRIGGER IF IT HAPPENS... AMZN---EPS AH TUES--NICE PB SO FAR, A LITTLE WEAK ON THE DCC CHART BUT LOOKS FINE ON P&F..NO BREAKDOWNS YET...35.60 THE BTL---34.45 THE SST...LOOKS OK... AMGN---HAS NOT GIVEN A SELL SIGNAL SINCE LAST DEC 2002, BEAUTIFUL CHART ALL THE WAY TO NEW HIGHS..71.40 THE BTL...70.10 THE SST...EPS AH TUES BRCM---PULLED BACK RIGHT TO THE 40 EMA DCC CHART..HAS EPS TUES AH...NO BREAKDOWNS ON P&F YET...26.05 THE BTL---24.95 THE SST...HANGING TOUCH HERE... ERTS--HAS EPS AH WEDS..HAS HAD A SPECTACULAR RUN HERE...AND IS PULLING BACK..SITTING ON THE 20 EMA DCC...77.00 THE BTL---75.85 THE SST... FDRY---VERY NICE CHART BOTH DCC AND P&F..PULLED BACK TO SUPPORT HERE..WILL IT RUN UP INTO EPS WEDS AH?...16.95 THE BTL---16.05 THE SST--- LRCX--THIS ONE HAS RUN UP HARD AHEAD OF EPS WEDS AH...HAMMERED FRIDAY AFTER A BULL FLAG PB FOR 2 1/2 DAYS LAST WEEK...21.35 THE BTL---20.35 THE SST... QCOM---LOST MY A$$ ON THIS ONE..HAD SERIOUS TROUBLE WITH 39 4 TIMES..MAJOR SELLERS THERE...I WAS THINKING 40 WAS GOING TO POP..NO CEEGAR...36.05 THE BTL---34.95 THE SST EPS AH WEDS SINA---UH OH..WHAT A POWERHOUSE STOCK AND SECTOR IT'S UN REAL FOLKS..GOTTA PLAY THIS ONE AND SOME OTHERS TOO. IT'S WORKING A SHAKEOUT PATTERN...EPS AH WEDS...29.55 THE BTL---28.45 THE SST..BIG BULLISH ENGULFING STICK FRIDAY AFTER AN EARLY SELLOFF ON HIGH VOLUME...I LOVE IT LONG... EBAY--WE TRADED THIS ONE FROM THE LOW 60'S MONTHS AGO..IT NEVER, I REPEAT NEVER EVEN STOPPED FOR A BREATHER..INCREDIBLE RUN..IS IT OVER? ALREADY PRICED IN?..WE'LL KNOW AH THURS...111.10 THE BTL---109.10 THE SST...SITTING ON THE 20 EMA... KLAC---HAS EPS AH THURS TOO HAS IT TOPPED OUT LAST WEEK AT THE 52 WEEK HIGHS?..INTERESTING TO THINK IT DID THAT DURING A SELLOFF WEEK..GREAT EXPECTATIONS?...50.80 THE BTL---49.60 THE SST...STILL ABOVE THE 20 EMA HERE... ZRAN---WHAT A NICE SEMI FOLKS..NICE CHARTS TOO...THIS ONE RAMPED UP AHEAD OF EPS AH THURS..BROKE OUT TO A 52 WEEK HIGH..USUALLY AFTER STOCKS DO THAT THEY PULLBACK FOR 1-2 DAYS AND THEN TRY TO RUN IT UP AGAIN..MAYBE ZRAN AND KLAC WILL DO JUST THAT..MARKET WILLING. DOUBLE HAMMERS DCC CHART...24.50 THE BTL---23.40 THE SST...I LIKE IT LONG HERE... SOHU---THE CHINA SYNDROME GROUP COMING UP...I THINK THEY ARE ALL WORKING A SHAKEOUT PATTERN AFTER TANKING HARD LAST WEEK INTO THURS THEN EXPLODING UP ON LARGE VOLUME ON FRIDAY...SINA WILL LEAD THIS GROUP...ALREADY PRE ANNOUNCED DOUBLE PROFITS...41.50 THE BTL---40.40 THE SST..POPPED OFF THE 20 EMA FRIDAY.. NTES---EXACT SAME LOOK OF THE CHARTS...SOLD OFF HARD THEN RALLIED UP FRIDAY OFF SUPPORT...39.35 THE BTL---38.25 THE SST...HAS A DT AT 41..IF IT CANNOT GET OVER IT AT 42 SELL IT SHORT...WATCH VOLUME ON THE UP DAYS HERE..ON ALL OF THEM... CHINA---OOOH THIS ONE KILLED THE SHORTS ON FRIDAY AFTER A GRAVESTONE DOJI ON THURS..WOW!!! EXPLODED UP ON HUGH VOLUME AT 23 MILLION SHARES...ONLY HAS 35 MILLION TOTAL...13.95 THE BTL---12.90 THE SST...AMAZING CHART HERE BULLISH FOR SURE... ASIA---SAME LOOK OF THE CHARTS...INTERESTING RS IS IN O'S HERE NOT AS STRONG AS THE OTHERS..WILL IT MATTER IF SINA COMES IN GOOD?...10.40 THE BTL---9.60 THE SST... XING---MUCH WEAKER LOOKING P&F CHART HERE..COULD BE A NICE SHORT AT SOME POINT...12.15 THE BTL---11.35 THE SST...BOUNCED UP HARD OFF THE 40 EMA DCC... IIJI---WHOA...DOJI'D THURS RIGHT AT THE 20 EMA SCARED THE LONGS, HAD THE SHORTS SMILING..THEY GOT KILLED ON FRIDAY...HAMMERED UP HARD..AFTER HEADING TO OBLIVION<G> TOUCHED 7.50??? HOLY COW...CLOSED AT 9.15!!!! 9.55 THE BTL---8.70 THE SST.THIS STOCK IS A SHORT OFF THE POTENTIAL OF A DCB(DEAD CAT BOUNCE ) HERE...BUT BE CAREFUL...AHEAD OF SINA'S IMPORTANT EARNINGS THIS WEEK... NXTL---NO QUIT IN THIS STOCK FOLKS HAD GREAT EARNINGS AND WAS ACTIVE ON FRIDAY...20.40 THE BTL---19.65 THE SST... MU---WE MADE A NICE TRADE ON MU ON FRIDAY THERE WAS SERIOUS BUYING INTEREST IN THIS STOCK...PULLED BACK NICELY TO THE RISING 20 EMA AND THEN RALLIED UP BULLISHLY...14.65 THE BTL---13.90 THE SST...NICE DEVELOPING CHART... =============================================================================================== OK FOLKS THATS IT FOR THIS ALL IMPORTANT WEEK..PLEASE SET ALERTS ON ALL INDEXES ESPECIALLY THE SPX AND DOW...YOU HAVE THE NUMBERS...THEY ARE VERY IMPORTANT TO OUR LONGER TERM VIEWS OF THIS CURRENT TREND..WILL IT END OR EXPLODE... THE PASSWORD FOR THIS WEEK IS....thequestion...................one word lower case... ON WEDS AND THURS OF THIS WEEK I'LL BE OUT OF THE ROOM EARLY IN THE AM ON APPT'S...BUT WILL BE BACK FOR LUNCH AND THE CLOSE EACH DAY... HOPE YOU ALL HAD A RESTFUL WEEKEND IT WAS GORGEOUS HERE IN PHILLY.. WARMEST REGARDS TO YOU ALL JERRY