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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (11721)	7/23/2003 11:17:14 AM
From: GraceZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

I don't know. If you think that the economy will continue to be slow growth and C&I doesn't pick up, what is it that is driving interest rates up aside from a lot of bond holders who, after irrationally bidding bonds up, now irrationally panic out? Seems to me the only way rates will rise if the economy picks up and demand for loans comes back. We're in a supply regime, something we haven't been in, in either of our lifetimes. If the economy picks up sharply and demand for loans comes back, something no one seems to think can happen, if that happens will it matter to the housing market if rates tick up? Maybe the refi guys go into a cyclical pullback, but demand for housing is driven by the general economy so instead of refis they switch to doing original mortgages. Now if you are in the school of thought that the economy goes moribund and we continue to show Japan like tendencies then we have a few points left to fall and lots of refis left to do.