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To: MythMan who wrote (251688)	7/23/2003 1:49:43 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

On Being a Bull Now By James J. Cramer 07/23/2003 11:47 AM EDT Click here for more stories by James J. Cramer Market Commentary BULLISH Being a bull doesn't mean you're corrupt. This isn't a game that brainpower alone will win. The factors that favor higher prices are in line. Critics of the world: I am not some mindless bull eagerly being drawn to the slaughterhouse by the need to make people feel better about the market. I am not some lackey who can see no evil and who is paid by my television partner, Larry Kudlow. I am not some moron out to lose a lot of money on the long side. Nor am I clamoring for the heads of the bears on Amazon (AMZN:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis), a stock that I have highlighted as an up stock. I am not angry that there are not enough bulls on the site. I am not hungry for praise on my calls on the four horsemen of the Net. What I am is a living, breathing individual who thinks the bear market ended at the exquisite moment and a bull market began. I am someone who favors higher stock prices and who believes they are deserved. I am not making up reasons to be long. I see reasons. I hear reasons. I am not trying to gloss over the deaths in Iraq -- they are horrible. I am not trying to become the press secretary for President Bush, although I think he is doing a good job. I am not trying to ignore the negatives. I am simply trying to make money. Those of you who feel it is an insult to your intelligence that the market goes higher, those of you who think that it is outrageous that anyone could champion such an expensive market or like "ne'er-do-well" stocks like Schering-Plough (SGP:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) or AOL Time Warner (AOL:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis), I have three key words for you: Get a life. If I felt or believed that the path of least resistance was down, I would be hammering you to sell and get short. I just don't see it that way. I am trying to figure out ways to keep myself in because I think the opportunities to the upside are so outsized. As usual, the bear case is the more thoughtful, ironic, amusing and intellectually satisfying one. It is more challenging, unique and dynamic. It is more like the really smart kid in class than the average kid in class. But this is not a game of brains. The brainiest guys in the business, by sheer conventional candle power, are the morons from Long Term Capital, right now fighting a losing battle about elaborate ruses designed to fool the feds so they could pay fewer taxes even as they were developing the greatest single loss machine ever devised! The smartest guys I ever met were the professors I had at Harvard Law, and they couldn't invest their way out of a paper bag. But brains are a dime a dozen on Wall Street. I realized that the day I got here. Brains are overrated. They are overrated for one simple reason: The system is set up to buy, not sell, stocks. The mutual fund industry is set up to buy, not sell, stocks. The brokerage industry is set up to buy, not sell, stocks. The companies are set up to promote, not degrade, stocks. The Federal Reserve and the president are there to promote stocks, not bonds, not cash, not real estate. (I know that is a simplification, but it fits.) Sometimes these bull soldiers aren't lined up properly. Sometimes the Fed favors lower stock prices. Sometimes the Fed favors higher bond prices. Sometimes the president doesn't give a hoot about stocks (the junior Bush's father comes to mind). Sometimes the brokerage houses are afraid of regulators and downgrade. Sometimes the mutual funds aren't 100% long. But this is not one of those times. This is a time when not-so-bright might trump bright. It is a time when optimism can trump "reason" because reason is too smart for its own good. My job is to find stocks that go up. It is not to find reasons stocks will go down. I know not to outthink the process when it is time not to outthink the process. That doesn't make me less rigorous. It just makes me more opportunistic, with an internal rigor that has worked for me for many, many years. That's demonstrable. I have a record that proves it, even if you don't believe it! So, forgive me my bullishness. It might be wrong. But it ain't wrong because I am corrupt (I get paid whether I am right or wrong -- wrong too much and I'll lose my podium) or support the president in 2004. OK? OK.