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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (3136)	7/23/2003 6:12:42 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4907

climb the wall of worry, gold up another 1-2 bucks AH

To: mishedlo who wrote (3136)	7/23/2003 6:23:47 PM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 4907

Gold Bugs Are Getting Feisty it's amazing how many people just don't understand what's happening. now, if my gold gains would just offset my short losses <g/ng>

To: mishedlo who wrote (3136)	7/23/2003 6:47:01 PM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Respond to of 4907

mishedlo, I'm not sure on the jewelry demand, or even to what degree increased gold production has increased available supply. However, on the other items: a) There is no longer any question that hedging gold positions has resumed in earnest. The so called "smart money" has been shorting gold for some time now, expecting a "bottom" somewhere in the $300 - $315 range. (I cannot recall the source of that information, but I think it was from a Bloomberg radio show guest who was/is bullish on gold for the long term, but quite bearish in the short term.) b) Long anticipated geopolitical influences (such as the Chinese banks hoarding gold) have simply failed to materialize in the near term. c) Rebounding equity markets will certainly dampen the demand for gold (again, in the short term), as equities soak up the investment capital currently available. If the equity markets falter, there's no guarantees whatsoever that gold (or any other commodity) will become the de facto beneficiary of whatever investment capital remains. d) The dollar will continue to rally as long as Asian banks (among others) continue to devalue their currencies so as to remain inexpensive vis a vis the dollar. All that said, I still wouldn't short gold (much too risky for my tastes), but I don't think gold is a screaming buy either... It's probably better to remain on the sidelines for now (and perhaps miss a little upside action) rather than take any (serious) risks in bullion positions which may yet resume a slow downward drift. Just my opinion, though... KJC