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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (107590)7/23/2003 9:26:15 PM
From: broadstbull  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 281500
 
Iraq has a population of about 24 million plus. So if 1% of them are hardliners, willing to resist till the end, this is gonna be a major task to eliminate them. And thats with only 1% being hardliners.



To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (107590)7/23/2003 9:54:14 PM
From: Bilow  Respond to of 281500
 
Hi Nadine Carroll; Re: "Carl, I think I understand. You see the world in black or white. Totally. If ..."

Uninteresting insults ignored.

Re: "It's quite clear even from major media reports that a) the vast, vast majority of Iraqis are delighted to have Saddam gone b) are glad we removed him ..."

Agreed. In fact, I was saying this before the war. For example:

Bilow, March 24, 2003
Re: "Do you honestly believe that Saddam's party has anywhere near the same level of support which Ho Chi Minh had?" No, at least I don't suspect he does. But that doesn't matter. Like I said before, the comments about how much support Saddam has, or his nature as a dictator avoid the question. The real question is this: How much support does Bush have in Iraq? Answer it. #reply-18743822

Re: "... c) are ok with us rebuilding the country so long as it's not permanent and we intend to leave, which naturally they have suspicions about, being humans and in the Middle East."

I don't think that this is correct. The Iraqis, by and large, want us out of the country.

Every day I read about more US troops being wounded or killed by Iraqis. If most of the Iraqis love us so much, then how come I'm not reading every day about Iraqi guerillas being lynched by groups of Iraqis outraged that anyone would attack the US? Instead, what I read is that when the guerillas take out one of our vehicles, the locals all have a celebration.

Re: "A very small percentage of Ba'athist bitter-enders ... and imported fedayeen "

Agreed. These are very small numbers. But they are fairly effective and not likely to stop fighting any time soon (ever), and may account for some of the more professional attacks on our forces. But note that despite the fact that we've accounted for the majority of the "deck of playing cards", attacks on US troops are at a high, not a low. So the Baathists have little to do with the overall number of attacks. Either that or the Baathists are converting more people over to their way of thinking as time goes on.

Re: "... Arab pride/Islamist Iraqis ..."

Nope, that category is not a "very small percentage". It's huge. But fortunately, only a very small percentage actually take up arms. But only a very very very small percentage of Americans actually take up arms, LOL. The basic problem in Iraq is that we are severely outnumbered.

Re: "Counter-insurgency operations have a very good chance of success when the majority of the population does not support the insurgents, as here."

The locals are applauding every time the insurgents pull off a stunt. And then they're not turning the insurgents in to our forces. If they were, we wouldn't be seeing the number of attacks slowly climbing for 3 long months.

Even the police officers we train ask us to "get out of town".

Re: "So my opinion not changed very much."

Yes. That's why I'm still talking to you.

Re: "The "guerilla armies" running around Iraq - Uday's fedayeen - were there with Saddam's full approval, and some of them are still making trouble."

If this were an accurate version of reality, then attacks on US forces should be declining as they run out of fedayeen and more "cards" get put away. Instead, attacks against the US increase. You're in "hope mode" here, not in reality mode.

-- Carl



To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (107590)7/23/2003 10:20:43 PM
From: Sully-  Respond to of 281500
 
"Unlike some people, I alter my opinions to take new facts into account. "

And in Bilow's case, he alters new facts to account for his opinions.<g>



To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (107590)7/24/2003 6:00:22 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 281500
 
Den Beste hits the "Big Time." An Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal.

We Won't Back Down
The real reason we're in Iraq--and why we we'll stay.

BY STEVEN DEN BESTE
Thursday, July 24, 2003 12:01 a.m.

Opponents of American foreign policy in Iraq are attempting to focus the entire debate on one small and extremely unimportant event. They're trying to claim that the inclusion of one specific sentence in this year's State of the Union address is the total political issue, and since that sentence appears to have been based on faulty intelligence, they are trying to claim that this somehow shakes the entire foundation of the case for war.

In fact, the real reason we went into Iraq was precisely to "nation build": to create a secularized, liberated, cosmopolitan society in a core Arab nation. To create a place where Arabs were free and safe and unafraid and happy and successful and not ruled by corrupt monarchs or brutal dictators. This would demonstrate to the other people in the Arab and Muslim worlds that they can succeed, but only if they abandon those political, cultural and religious chains that are holding them back.

We are not doing this out of altruism. We are not trying to give them a liberalized Western democracy because we're evangelistic liberal democrats (with both liberal and democrat taking historical meanings). We are bringing reform to Iraq out of narrow self-interest. We have to foster reform in the Arab/Muslim world because it's the only real way in the long run to make them stop trying to kill us.

So why did George W. Bush and Tony Blair, in making the case for war, put so much emphasis on U.N. resolutions and weapons of mass destruction? Honesty and plain speaking are not virtues for politicians and diplomats. If either Mr. Bush or Mr. Blair had said what I did, it would have hit the fan big-time. Making clear a year ago that this was our true agenda would have virtually guaranteed that it would fail. Among other things, it would have caused all of the brutal dictators and corrupt monarchs in the region to unite with Saddam against us, and would have made the invasion impossible. But now the die is cast, and said brutal dictators and corrupt monarchs no longer have the ability to stop the future.

But does America have the stamina to finish the job? Yes. This kind of thing takes on momentum. Richard Nixon ran for president in 1968 on a platform that essentially opposed the war in Vietnam. (The catch phrase was "Peace with honor.") But we fought for several more years before finally giving up.

Whenever Mr. Bush leaves office, whether in 2005 or 2009, whoever follows him will face a situation in which he'd take far more political heat for pulling out with the job half done than for continuing the process. There's another year and a half in Mr. Bush's current term, and by the end of it, the process will either be a complete shambles or else it will clearly be on the road to success, and I think it's unlikely to be a shambles.

Mistakes will get made, and there will be problems. We're going to be making a lot of this up as we go. But if there's anything you should know about Americans by now, it's that we're problem solvers. Americans have gained a reputation elsewhere for being flighty, mercurial; there's some truth to that, but it's also true that we can stick with things for decades if we think it's worthwhile. We stuck with the occupations of Germany and Japan for 50 years. I feel confident we'll stick with this, too.

Much of the reputation we've gained in the world comes from how we act when we're not challenged. There's steel in us, too, but we don't show it much. It only really comes out in war, and when we've been at peace for several decades there's a tendency to think that we used to have that kind of steel, but that we don't any longer. That's wrong, and every generation the world learns that anew. Going into World War II, many in Europe said that Americans used to be willing to fight back in the days of Lincoln but had become decadent and soft. History proves otherwise, of course.

That steel is still there, it's just that we don't feel any need to show it when it isn't needed. But when the issues are sufficiently important to us, we'll still make major sacrifices.

The memory of 9/11 runs deep. I'm becoming convinced that few in Europe truly understand just what that really meant to us, the anger and the hatred it raised. It's not the kind of thing we get over. We're not going to forget it.

We haven't forgotten Pearl Harbor, either. That doesn't mean we consider Japan an enemy, but it does mean that we did what we needed to in order to make sure Japan would never do anything like that to us again. When we truly decide to solve a problem, we try to solve it permanently.

And we're not going to forget 9/11. On some level or another, it's going to be a major political issue here for the next few decades, until we're convinced that the danger is gone. Arab extremism is no longer something that happens a long ways away and that we can ignore, so we aren't going to. It is their problem, but 9/11 made it ours. Now we'll solve it.

In order to remove the danger to us that Japan represented, it had to be reformed. So that's what happened. Now we're going to try to do the same to the Arabs. And we'll do whatever we need to in order to make sure nothing like 9/11 happens again. We're not fundamentally cruel, and if we can we'd like to solve this for everyone's benefit. Japan is a better place now than it was before World War II. So is Germany. I hope that the Arab and Islamic nations will be better, too.

But the one thing we're not going to do is to surrender. We'll try to solve this as humanely as we can, but solve it we must, and I believe that this nation will do whatever it needs to in order to remove the danger facing it. If an American city gets nuked by a terrorist, things are going to get extremely ugly. So even America-haters in Europe had better hope that this works, because the alternative is much worse. (Which is a really good reason why they'd also better stop trying to make it fail.)

Right now the Democrats are running around like chickens with their heads cut off, in thrall to their extreme wing, and trying to peddle a message full of recriminations. But they'll soon realize that their message of hatred, panic and shame isn't selling to the majority of voters here, and they'll either fade into political insignificance for the next 20 years, or (far more likely) the idiots will get marginalized and more-practical voices will emerge. Within a year, the argument will no longer be about whether we should have gone in. It will be about what we should do next.

The Democrats won't have any influence until they actually look toward the future and start talking about what they think we actually should do. Bitching about what actually happened will get them headlines, but it isn't ultimately going to get them enough votes to win. And I think that they know it.

As combat started, I felt enormous pressure and worry, for the people involved. But on another level I felt a great deal of relief. Once we actually began the invasion, certain political issues became faits accomplis. The question of engagement in the Arab sphere is no longer debatable; we're going to be engaged. That was still in doubt, right up until the first tanks rolled over the border from Kuwait into Iraq. Now it isn't.

The 9/11 attack awoke America's Jacksonians, what Walter Russell Mead called our "folk community with a strong sense of common values and common destiny." They don't wake easily. But they also don't go back to sleep easily.

No, we're not going to give up on this. The degree of our commitment may change up or down; there will be debate and argument. But one way or another, we're going to stick with this. Ultimately, we have no choice.

Mr. Den Beste writes at DenBeste.nu.



To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (107590)7/24/2003 10:28:09 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
The War Ahead
PA's choice.

By Max Abrahms - National Review

President Bush should deliver one unambiguous message to Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) when they meet this Friday in Washington: The Palestinian Authority is going to war, the only question is with whom. As Israel begins withdrawing from parts of Gaza and the West Bank, the Palestinian prime minister faces a choice: Either wage war against the terrorists or allow the newly created power vacuum to become a safe haven for them to regroup and launch a fresh round of attacks against Israelis.

If the former prevails, Abbas will honor the roadmap by dismantling the terrorist infrastructure. But if the latter wins out, he will become Yasser Arafat's understudy, guilty of talking peace while fanning violence. A showdown with Israel will be all but assured. Will Abbas stand up to the rejectionists or be their latest accomplice? The answer will determine whether he fights Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade or Ariel Sharon.

The good news is that a full 73 percent of the Palestinian public supports the 90-day Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire declared last month, according to the Ramallah-based Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR), a top polling agency on Palestinian public opinion. The dire state of Palestinian society has evidently rekindled interest in negotiations with Israel. And the Bush administration's discreet but tough diplomacy calling on European and Arab capitals to threaten terrorist groups of funding has surely helped bring them to the table. Israel's controversial policy of targeted assassinations has apparently reinforced the poin, the terrorists are under the lens, at least for now ? so negotiate or else.

The bad news is that the current ceasefire does not mean that the terrorists have come to terms with a two-state solution. Theirs is a modification of tactics not strategy, an expedient decision to temporarily take their hands off the trigger. When Palestinian Information Minister Nabil Amr recently suggested extending it beyond the three months, Hamas leader Abdel Aziz Rantisi mocked the idea as "dreams." This, after all, is Hamas's ninth ceasefire since the late 1980s. And it will probably not be the last. Leaders from the other major Palestinian opposition group, Islamic Jihad, have likewise publicly questioned agreeing to the momentary respite.

The problem is that Palestinian society continues to be gripped by the same decade-old paradox. According to the PSR data, about three-quarters of the public routinely conveys support for negotiations with Israel. But notwithstanding the cease-fire, half of all Palestinians condone the "armed intifada" ? code for terror. The unsaid assumption is that the best way to pursue talks with Israel is to supplement ? not supplant ? them with suicide attacks.

Such logic is not just deeply disturbing, it is unsound. While terrorism may bring international attention to the Palestinian plight, it will not improve it. Until the moderate majority distances itself from the extremists, the entire Palestinian public will de-legitimize itself as a viable partner for peace. This was the story of the Oslo "war process." As the leader of the moderate majority, Abbas must ensure that the rejectionists do not again hijack the negotiations with Israel.

Regrettably, the other paradox is that while three quarters of the Palestinian population now believes that terrorist attacks "impede a return to the peace process," the vast majority of Palestinians still oppose efforts to confront head-on the spoilers to peace. Only 36 percent of Palestinians support "arresting individuals conducting violent attacks on Israelis" and only a quarter of the population agrees with "cutting off funding for groups engaged in terror and violence against Israelis." Clearly, Palestinian society still places greater value on maintaining peace with the terrorists than with Israel.

The trick for Abbas is to strike the terrorists when they are weak and not kick the can down the road. The conventional wisdom is that Israeli concessions can by themselves resolve the "terrorism problem" by bolstering support for the moderates. This view assumes that preemptively withdrawing from Palestinian dominated areas and easing travel restrictions into Israel will improve the lives of Palestinians, making terror a self-defeating and therefore unpopular policy. In this way, by giving the Palestinians a "stake in the system," terror can be de-legitimized without having to confront it.

This position, while intuitively attractive, needs rethinking. The polling data over the past decade suggests that Palestinian terrorists, for the most part, are not motivated by economic considerations. True, the more moderate Fatah party routinely cites poverty as its primary concern and membership levels rise when times are good. And Hamas, the largest opposition group, has been able to attract thousands of supporters with its dense network of social welfare organizations. But these "swing voters" are generally not the "ticking time bombs" the Israel Defense Forces worry about.

The real question is what to do with the 10 to 15 percent of the Palestinian population that consistently ranks the destruction of Israel as its leading objective, well ahead of economic revitalization. This hardcore rejectionist nucleus has historically neither ebbed nor flowed in response to improvements or relapses in their economic livelihoods or any other yardstick for Israeli-Palestinian relations. Such data militates against the widespread notion that progress in the "peace process" will automatically eliminate terror.

If the past decade is any guide, diplomatic momentum will only enliven this violent rejectionist contingent, not cause it to fade away. This does not mean that Abbas is merely a stooge of the West as he is often portrayed in the Arab world. Already, his strong rhetorical stand against terrorism has contributed to the brief cessation of suicide attacks. But now is not the time to dither and launch recriminations against Israel. The Sharon government will have no choice but to fulfill its own Roadmap obligations if Abbas seizes this opportunity.

Bush should be clear: Will the untested Palestinian prime minister challenge the terrorists before they reconstitute their forces or defer the job to his Israeli counterpart? Both Israelis and Palestinians will be infinitely better off if it is Abbas who steps up to the plate.

? Max Abrahms is a research fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

nationalreview.com