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Politics : Stop the War! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas M. who wrote (19867)	7/24/2003 4:09:46 PM
From: jttmab	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21614

It's one thing to predict an outcome with confidence ...even high confidence. But if your survival is at stake you want no doubts. And there's no way to be 100% in a state of war. Predicted outcomes are based on simulations and human judgements. There is some Monte Carlo modeling to take into account some unpredictability [not sure they did that in 1967], but you never know the outcome of a specific battle; does that battle become a critical battle. How much are you willing to bet on a simulation? Then there's US intelligence...I ask you ...how much do you trust the accuracy of US intelligence? [it's a lot better today than it was in 1967] jttmab