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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (252074)	7/24/2003 6:21:23 PM
From: Sully-	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

That's just another sure sign that economic growth is assured to exceed 3 1/2% to 4% GDP growth in the second half <g>.

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (252074)	7/24/2003 7:02:21 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 436258

Soapbox Reflections On Earnings and other Twisted Thoughts Very weird earnings season IMO Bad news mostly bought Good news sold a substantial portion of the time Mediochre news nearly always soared initially then sold off It is almost as if someone wants to convince every last SOB on the planet that bad news no longer matters. Look at all the freaking upgrades on INTC Soared on BS news and now has finally given most of it back. EBAY dies tonight on what seems to be good news as best as I can tell. No problem - that is profit taking. OK the occasional stock gets hammered (NOK, BRCM) on bad news but those are the exceptions. PMCS had awful news and was down substantially as was XLNX, only to open up the next day nearly flat. Of course PMCS is sold like mad into that "bad news buy". Look at GLW. Opened up huge after earnings. Sells off a bit sucking in bears, then gaps up huge trapping them all. After they all cover, guess what. Huge gap down this AM. UFB or what? Check the chart. Let's look at the VIX. Better yet lets look at the VIX as compared to the Spoos. The VIX is down almost 5 full points over the last month or whatever (at todays low) and the spoos are nearly flat. This is off the top of my head so someone please post a chart for us to look at. Better yet ... Here goes finance.yahoo.com^VIX&d=c&k=c1&c=^spx&a=v&p=s&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l No gains on the overall market since first week in June, yet bulls are salivating everywhere as judged by Cramer, bear taunts on SI, and talk about the lovely vix. This rally is being fueled by fewer and fewer stocks IMO. (does someone have stats on this?) Here is the crux of the question. Is this churning and distribution at the top or is this basing for a breakout? The bulls expect a blast off (CRAMER was taunting the IBM bears at 86 calling for 90, GM bears at 37 calling for 41, etc, etc). He gets "lucky" or is it skill that MMM INTC and others pick up the slack. Now what????? Does GM MSFT IBM lift the market higher or does MMM pullback. Or is it both. IBM churns higher and MMM churns lower as every last FN bull on the sidelines gets sucked in and every bear on the sidelines sucked out? Actually it does not matter what your view is as long as you are on the right side of it. Options (as well as opinions)here are incredibly cheap! But.... You do need a move eventually and it better be the right way. If you are playing options here I would not do front month. There is enormous dip buying going on. How long can it last? Who knows. We are poised for a big move at some point as sideways action with plunging VIX can not last forever. Distribution or basing. If you play the break, will it be a headfake? You make the call At any rate, this should be something to think about. Thoughts? JSIG (Just stay in gold?) M