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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (3715)	7/25/2003 5:24:54 AM
From: KLP	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793575

When I posted Mr. Cheney's address on FADG earlier, I wondered about the NIE....He discusses the Oct 2002 report, and here's a report from Dec 2001 with an estimate through 2015..... I've just posted the Forward and table of contents....it is interesting... Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015 cia.gov Published December 2001 Unclassified Summary of a National Intelligence Estimate This Estimate was approved for publication by the National Foreign Intelligence Board under the authority of the Director of Central Intelligence. Prepared under the auspices of the National Intelligence Officer for Strategic and Nuclear Programs. Inquiries may be directed to the NIO through the Office of Public Affairs on (703) 482-7778. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Preface -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015 The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence has requested that the Intelligence Community (IC) produce annual reports containing the latest intelligence on ballistic missile developments and threats and a discussion of nonmissile threat options. This paper is an unclassified summary of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that is the fourth annual report. The NIE describes new missile developments and our projections of possible and likely ballistic missile threats to the United States, US interests overseas, and military forces or allies through 2015; updates assessments of theater ballistic missile forces worldwide; discusses the evolving proliferation environment; and provides a summary of forward-based threats and cruise missiles. We examine future ballistic missile capabilities of several countries that have ballistic missiles and ballistic missile development programs. Each country section includes a discussion of theater-range systems and current and projected long-range systems. Our assessments of future missile developments are inexact and subjective because they are based on often fragmentary information. Many countries surround their ballistic missile programs with extensive secrecy and compartmentalization, and some employ deception. Although such key milestones as flight-testing are difficult to hide, we may miss others. To address these uncertainties, we assess both the earliest date that countries could test various missiles, based largely on engineering judgments made by experts inside and outside the Intelligence Community, on the technical capabilities and resources of the countries in question, and, in many cases, on continuing foreign assistance; and when countries would be likely to test such missiles, factoring into the above assessments potential delays caused by technical, political, or economic hurdles. We judge that countries are much less likely to test as early as the hypothetical “could” dates than they are by our projected “likely” dates. In making these projections, we examine the level of success and the pace individual countries have experienced in their missile development efforts and consider foreign technology transfers, political motivations, military incentives, and economic resources. We have not attempted to address all of the potential political, economic, and social changes that could occur; we have projected missile developments between now and 2015 independent of significant political and economic changes. For example, some countries that currently have hostile or friendly intentions toward the United States could change significantly over the next fifteen years. As we prepare each annual report, we review strategic trends that could indicate such changes in order to make any necessary adjustments in our projections Contents -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Preface 1 Key Judgments 3 Discussion 5 Introduction 5 Russia 7 China 8 North Korea 9 Iran 9 Iraq 10 Libya 12 Syria 12 India 13 Pakistan 14 Forward-Based Missile Threats to the United States 14 Nonmissile WMD Threats to the United States 15 Go To link above for Report...................>