This recall is a debacle, IMO. The Dems will be able to deflect criticism next year from the legislature, which is the real villain, to the new Gov.
White House Skeptical Recall Would Be a Gift
By ADAM NAGOURNEY - NEW YORK TIMES
For a White House that would particularly like to see President Bush prevail in California in the 2004 election, the recall move that is threatening to topple Gov. Gray Davis, a Democrat, would seem, at first glance, like a gift.
But as a nervous White House contemplated the successes, so far, of the effort to oust Mr. Davis, it was hardly clear that the recall effort would provide the advantage Mr. Bush was seeking in the solidly Democratic state.
Some Republicans argued that the installation of a Republican governor in California would give Mr. Bush the organizational and fund-raising foundation needed to make a serious run there. But other Republicans, including several close to the White House, said the ouster of Mr. Davis could harm the president in California by removing a polarizing and unpopular Democrat whose presence would inspire high Republican turnout.
In his place, some Republicans fear, could be an inexperienced Republican struggling with the same budgetary problems that have contributed to Mr. Davis's difficulties.
"There're two ways of looking at this: one is that you have a strong Republican governor and the infrastructure that goes with it," a senior Republican Party strategist said, as the White House debated how to respond to these events. "The flip side is, You have Gray Davis with a 10 percent approval rating. Does that help Republicans?"
National Democratic leaders said they remained confident about their party's prospects in California next year, no matter what happens to Mr. Davis. One senior party official said that if Mr. Davis was ousted, Democrats would attempt to use the episode to turn out Democratic voters.
Still, this official said, the party had decided it would prefer to have Mr. Davis in power next year to provide a political base for the Democratic presidential candidate and to that end would discourage any Democrat from entering the race.
The situation is particularly difficult for this White House. Mr. Bush's advisers were embarrassed last year in their unsuccessful effort to engineer the nomination of Richard J. Riordan, the former mayor of Los Angeles, as the Republican challenger to Mr. Davis. He was defeated by a more conservative Republican, Bill Simon Jr., in the Republican primary.
Accordingly, Republicans in Washington and California said, the president could hardly afford to be viewed by California voters as meddling in the state's affairs at the time of a political and fiscal crisis.
Throughout the day, the normally sure-footed White House reacted tentatively to the events in California. Several Republicans close to the White House said they would like to see Arnold Schwarzenegger emerge as the Republican candidate to succeed Mr. Davis. His candidacy is hardly certain, however, and those same Republicans feel that the political caliber of the potential field declines sharply behind Mr. Schwarzenegger, as several other Bush associates observed yesterday.
But George Gorton, a senior adviser to Mr. Schwarzenegger, said he had not heard a word from the White House encouraging or discouraging his candidate from entering the race, notwithstanding the fact that Mr. Bush's senior adviser, Karl Rove, has long promoted the notion of a Schwarzenegger candidacy, albeit for 2006, when Mr. Davis's term is supposed to expire.
"None," Mr. Gorton said, a note of surprise in his voice. "They felt that they got involved in the Riordan thing, and it didn't work out for them, and they are now discouraged about California. I think they are probably just keeping a distant view of it."
Polls and demographics aside, Mr. Rove has long viewed California much the same way Ahab viewed the white whale. And while part of that is a feint, intended to force the Democratic presidential contender next year to spend time and money in a state that it should be able to take for granted, there is no doubt that a Republican victory in California would be grievous for Democrats.
Still, the White House was notably silent in response to the events in California; both Mr. Rove and Mr. Bush's campaign manager, Ken Mehlman, declined comment. Other Republicans observed that Democrats were eager to tie White House Republicans to the recall effort ? which Mr. Davis' aides have taken to calling a conservative coup d'etat ? and said that Mr. Bush's aides did not want to do anything to help them.
"This is up for Californians to decide," said Duf Sundheim, the California Republican chairman, who was in New York for the party's summer meeting, in a remark that was repeated almost word-for-word by other Republican leaders as the day went on.
Republicans close to Mr. Bush said they viewed Mr. Schwarzenegger as the strongest potential challenger to Mr. Davis, though they acknowledged that it was always a risk recruiting a newcomer to politics ? not to mention, to take over the management of a state facing a budget crisis of historic proportions.
By contrast, they expressed strong doubts about the campaign skills of two other Republicans who ran for governor last year, and who are considering running again, Mr. Riordan and Mr. Simon, and suggested that they would not be able to withstand the kind of fierce attacks that Mr. Davis has promised to keep his job.
Even if Mr. Bush's aides want to take a hand in the events in California, they are constrained by the fumble of last year when they tried to install Mr. Riordan as Mr. Davis's challenger. Mr. Riordan was defeated for the Republican nomination in a challenge from the right by Mr. Simon, who in turn was helped by television commercials by Mr. Davis attacking Mr. Riordan.
"I think the White House would be reluctant to inject themselves at this point," one senior California Republican strategist said. "I think they're kind of burned." Another senior Republican strategist said that given the confusion, and the conflicting scenarios of what could and might happen, the best thing the White House might do for now is nothing at all.
nytimes.com |
