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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: J. P. who wrote (11773)7/25/2003 2:09:09 PM
From: TradeliteRespond to of 306849
 
Everybody has to start somewhere in the homeownership game and it has always been conventional wisdom that "you should buy a home when you need one."

Our family really stretched to buy the home we're in today. It wasn't a comfortable financial feeling for a long time. Postponing it would have gained nothing, however.

Unlike some people who might regard today's real estate as an "overleveraged depreciating asset", I always tended to regard renting as a "constantly appreciating liability"--particularly around the time the landlord announced the annual rent increase, and the IRS came knocking with the annual income tax bill.



To: J. P. who wrote (11773)7/25/2003 2:34:59 PM
From: TradeliteRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
<<If this were normal times where houses appreciated their 2-4 percent a year as WAS the norm>>

<< houses have been run up 20% and more per year for about 4-5 years now>>

The first statement isn't a true reflection of what has occurred. There have been many stretches of time when housing prices stayed the same or declined. Then they've tended to go up in bursts.

When the bean counters give statistics about housing prices over the past decades, they are using average appreciation per year, not actual appreciation each year.

The second statement implies a belief that we have just seen the biggest and LAST burst of appreciation that will ever occur in our lifetime. If that idea is keeping people from buying homes right now, they probably never will buy.

If prices start falling, they'll be afraid to buy, once again trying to time a market which can't be timed. If they think 7 or 8 percent interest is too much to pay, won't they be shocked if they eventually have to pay what I paid when I bought? That would be 9.25 percent. So they probably won't buy then, either.

What a dilemma! And the only way to solve it is to buy when you need a home.



To: J. P. who wrote (11773)7/25/2003 3:53:31 PM
From: Jim McMannisRespond to of 306849
 
This is starting to be habit forming. Long rates hit another 7 month high again today. After a 25% rise in rates in the last month, they started to break out the charts with the talking heads on CNBC today! Took 'em long enough.

They do go up a lot faster than they go down don't they? Dat's the way it is.

30 year mortgage avg. today is 6.07%.

How long will it take for the banks to realize it's "real"?

Jim