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To: bcrafty who wrote (77933)	7/25/2003 3:47:59 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 209892

yeah, bc. Sure from a wider standpt -- if you look at the NDX alone or the COMPX -- we haven't even broke trend. I recognize this. And I am not dogmatic about VIX breaking some magic number like 20 -- it is the sequence of events and what the averages of p/c's, VIX are doing over a 3-5 days rolling that get my attention ... we had a wonderful rally -- a few weeks ago it became NDX only -- broader market went sideways. Selloffs in the last few weeks -- even a 50 pt drop in the compx -- were accompanied by the total absence of worry -- no spike in VIX or p/c to speak of. Now yesterday -- nice intraday spike down in VIX. Today it was the VXN. equity p/c opened pretty low for an hour -- started climbing -- then proceeded to drop off. Taken together -- these are enough for me. Have to expect the appearance of a "broadening" before we turn down What could change my mind. A number of things. Another couple of up days like this next week would probably work. A thorough trashing of the precious metals would help. But most of all -- a drop with a big jump in the VIX / VXN and then a rebound.