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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (31576)	7/25/2003 4:20:24 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 36161

<<<The economy has & is showing signs of responding to excess capacity ...> Slider, don't you think that the economy is showing some signs of responding to strong short term monetary and fiscal stimuli with both stimuli are based on increased borrowing? Did you read latest Steve Roach dispatches? He doesn't believe in recovery. Thanx

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (31576)	7/25/2003 4:29:51 PM
From: Roebear	Respond to of 36161

Slider, Agree that only time will tell. On your four points: 1. War/Terrorism Risk 2. Risk of freefall in the USD 3. Continuation, or even acceleration of the US Recession 4. Continuation of, or new lows in the Stock Market Bear I have watched the gold tape during all kinds of turmoil and except for a very short term reaction (9-11 being the longest but markets closed here for much of it) I do not put much faith in #1 for golds. As for #2, I see even less risk of a substantial rise in the dollar (<5%) short to intermediate term than there is of a free fall, so it is a mute point IMHO. #3 & #4 are not fatal points to a gold bull. There is NO reason the golds and the markets cannot go up together. It has happened as recently as 93-early 96, in the run up to 1987 crash, 89-mid 90 and (my data is sketchy on this one) I believe 82-early 84. I will stand by my target of HUI >200, with new all time highs in the HUI possible before the game is over. Not to say I won't be scouting out new arenas for the next game meanwhile. Best Regards, Roebear

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (31576)	7/26/2003 12:48:05 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Imho; the High Reward/Low Risk or "Big & Easy Money" portion of this cycle has passed...and the High Risk/Low Reward portion of this cycle is here at hand. You said this all the way down and were right but of what use? No buy call anywhere close to the bottom. WHT .72 to 1.42 NEM all time highs etc etc etc I suffered thru WHt holding from .92 to 1.18 and adding at 1.08 1.00 .95 (OUCH) and finally 1/3 more at .80. Sold that 1/3 at .92 and bought it back at .83 Stupidly sold it at .98 then sold some at 1.18 Holding some now at 1.40. You missed a HUGE runup. Nem 23 to 36. BGO $1 to 1.62 GSS 1.68 to $3 The easy money was WHT at .72 You were too blind to see it. If WHT gets back to 1.20 I am loading up the boat. NEM is a steal at 30 In the meantime you are a broken record. Do I wish I sold my WHT at 1.18 and bought it all back at .72. Of course. But knowlege of the long term trend and cash reserves let me add 4 times before I was proven right. Not pretty but not seeing the $hui double bottom is not pretty either. In the meantime watch gold get to $500 and you will be harping that the easy money was from 280 to 310. Get real. M