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To: da_cheif™ who wrote (252371)	7/26/2003 1:19:43 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Why is the VIX headed to 8? A better question might be: With that volatility will the market be headed strongly ANYWHERE, (either up or down). Why? At VIX 8 the market will be comatose. The market is up 80 points from May but let's look at june. The VIX plunged 5 points and the spoos (with todays close are up about 15 points). Hardly a screaming point/vix ratio. What is happening is the market has essentially been headed nowhere. Thus low vix. It it was rocketing up the VIX will not get to 8 as too much too easy $ will be made on calls. If we start blasting up, I bet the VIX rises not falls. If we start blasting down same thing. The question is: is a sinking VIX with no real price appreciation (Fuck May, look at June not MAY) a bullish event? Perhaps it is neither a bullish or bearish event until we snap out of this range. How long have we been in the range 962 - 1015? The VIX is dropping, not because prices are going up, but because they have been headed nowhere. If we do get to 8 (and we might in 5 years) the market might be a flatline. Thus WhoTF knows where the market will be at VIX 8? We might flatline at 800, 600, or 900 for all I know. Is that likely? Possibly not, but associating a falling VIX with soaring prices certainly has not happened since June. 25 to 20 was a huge % decline, yet the market went nowhere (from JUNE to now) nearly 2 months M