Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Louis V. Lambrecht who wrote (14844)	7/27/2003 9:19:23 AM
From: E. Charters	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

The best line to draw that most traders will act on is one in the sand, where you say, "buy this index or we'll shoot." Alacrity will be their middle name. On the other hand, if you want to have a more subtle influence, you could put together a compendium of regressed factors from 20 or so commonly held (to be) indicatorial things, and combine them in a Fourier exercise of lofty and only slightly condescending authority, quoting Kondratieff and his wave as an aside. Better yet to use non linear regression before recombining. If it's too depressing, just forget it and fudge the curve to what everone wants to hear. Since every Guru since bin Adam has always been wrong 100% about ever stock and index, at least you will be in good company. If you flipped a coing often enough you could simulate the behaviour of the exchange. With a properly weighted coin, which you experimentally construct by factor analysis, or other, you eventually find one that flips the same as the Dow moves. Since it is a physical coin, conundrum of having it obey long term laws of always favouring heads for 70 years at a time but only slightly, until for extended but briefer periods it favours tails, might be tough. It evidently has a bias that reverses every so often. It is hard to model randomly, don't you think? EC<:-} EC<:-}

To: Louis V. Lambrecht who wrote (14844)	7/27/2003 2:56:51 PM
From: Canuck Dave	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 39344

I trade charts. I do ok, but everyone has to find their own style. Charts summarize trading action over various time scales. Use them judiciously with other indicators, and you can give yourself an edge. Just my opinion. Markets are as much about emotions as facts and fundamentals, and emotions change. You can often (not always) see those emotions change. Statistical indicators like MACD, RSI, etc. etc. try to capture those emotions in a graphical form. Sometimes they succeed, sometimes they don't. Once in a while they give enough of a clear warning to tilt the odds significantly in our favor. That's all we need. Again, just my opinion. Let's use a real example. Chesapeake Gold (CKG) has fallen on tough times because they haven't announced anything lately. It's rumored they will pick up drilling and acquisition activity in the fall. I suspect the share price will firm up in advance of that. Look at the chart, particularly the red (selling pressure) and green (buying pressure) lines in the top figure. Also, look at the share price itself. stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pb20][vc60][iUl14]&pref=G A firming is indeed indicated. Voila, the odds are slightly tilted in our favor for a position here. That's as good as I can do. CD