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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: doniam who wrote (83913)	7/27/2003 6:13:10 PM
From: Rock_nj	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Most indicators I look at point to a market pullback here. The NAZ is having a hard time going any higher than 1760. A head and shoulders pattern appears to be forming. The longterm trend puts the NAZ somewhere around 1500. And perhaps most importantly, the VIX just went under 20 for the first time in over a year. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the market corrected 10% in August. Then, perhaps we'll be back in rally mode in the fall as traders return from vacation and new money flows into the market and fresh economic news comes along that gives us reason for optomism. But, in the meantime this market has correction written all over it. .

To: doniam who wrote (83913)	7/27/2003 9:29:25 PM
From: Tom Pulley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Don, I've been staying busy at work lately so haven't posted for awhile, but yes, my model is still neutral. I'm currently at 100% cash......very boring! Hard to tell what the next signal will be or when at this point. I'll be sure to post when I get a signal. This year my model has produced far fewer signals than usual, but that could change at any time. I'm expecting to see some good action in the August to December period providing opportunities to make some good money on the short and long side. Mortgage rates and the longer end of the yield curve have moved up in the last few weeks making for a steep yield curve. I'm expecting (hoping) that will lead to more volatility in the 3-6 week time frame my model is targeted toward. Due to my boredom with 100% cash, I have been doing some trading (with very small amounts). I bought some QQQ and sold calls on it recently. Also shorted ElPaso at 8.8 recently with a stop at 10.7: stockcharts.com[e,a]daclyyay[pc200!c33!i][vc60][iUp52,33,22!Ua20,52,20!Ub14!Ug!Lj[$SPX]]&pref=G Enron says they have $17 million in assets and $65 million in debt currently. ElPaso was doing their best to compete with Enron.........so I'm betting ElPaso's assets are still overstated and actually worth less than their debt. Also, being in the oil and gas business it looks to me like their E&P business isn't performing as well as in previous years. Tom