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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (11807)	7/28/2003 2:44:02 AM
From: Jim McMannis	Respond to of 306849

RE:"I don't get it. Why 2004? Why not next week!!!!" Well, for one thing when you make economic predictions it's better to predict far into the future so if you're wrong people have forgotten what you have predicted. If you're right you can always remind them. One of the vague terms that has evolved over the years is "going forward" I predict such and such... Also there is something called a j curve where you get a little rush based on the fear of missing it. That will prop up refi's one last time should this be the end of them. On top of that the refi numbers are probably a lagging indicator to begin with. Then again you're right...the rubber should be meeting the road long before 2004 is this rate rise continues and holds.