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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (313)	7/28/2003 11:16:51 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Serious stuff, as foreign CB's need to be AGGRESSIVE BUYERS of US old maid cards to keep the credit bubble from bursting. And actually selling if continued is very bad news indeed (or good news if you a short). I'm looking for a 600 SPX by the first half of 04. Dow Jones Business News US Agency Debt Seems To Be Losing Overseas Interest Monday July 28, 10:44 am ET By Julie Haviv, Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- Agency debt securities seem to be quickly losing their overseas appeal, with Asian interest in the bonds dropping substantially in recent weeks and the European Central Bank reported to be unloading its holdings. The ECB is said to be selling all the bonds it owns by housing finance companies Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and is advising its member central banks to do same, according to a report on Bloomberg News. "If the news is true, it is obviously a negative for agencies, but I don't think it's as bad as people might think because the European central banks have not been huge sponsors of the agency market," said Mukul Chadda, agency strategist at Lehman Brothers. Nevertheless, the news is moving the market Monday morning, and yield margins on agency debt over Treasurys are wider across the yield curve. Foreign investors have been selling agency debt since early June, when Freddie Mac reshuffled its senior management and several investigations were launched into the housing-finance company's accounting procedures. Agency debt held in custody at the Federal Reserve on behalf of foreign central banks has fallen to $183.2 billion in the week ending July 23 from $ 188.9 billion in the week ending June 11. However, Chadda noted that that figure also includes mortgage-backed securities issued by the agencies. Moreover, the data show that foreign central banks have also been selling Treasury holdings in recent weeks, which declined to $753.7 billion in the latest week, down $3.88 billion from the previous week.

To: ild who wrote (313)	7/31/2003 11:03:07 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

biz.yahoo.com this is one miserable report. I think the industry is not prepared for the reversal of the refi mania cycle. Persistency is now at such dangerous levels but even that does not tell the whole story. Domestic primary insurance in force totaled $115.2 billion, a decrease of 3 percent from a year ago. The decline in primary insurance in force was a result of record levels of policy cancellations partially offset by strong levels of new primary insurance written. So what percentage of the insurance in force are less than 2 years old, entering the prime default period?