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Pastimes : Home on the range where the buffalo roam -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: im a survivor who wrote (11031)	7/28/2003 8:25:21 PM
From: Sig	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13815

Your concerns cover the full range of concerns of investors today The market is chaos, fractal- it must be that way because if it was predictable through history, curves, or systems then one man or one country would long ago have collected all the money Even Warren Buffet, gifted with twice the financial brains of any other, is having difficulty in achieving gains barely better than the market averages. His game is completely different from the one we play here, different goals, 6 months of down is no problem, where it is to us I notice one stock is covered by 37 analysts, 37 different reports to buy, and 37 opinions which if averaged would tell you the price of the stock today is exactly what it should be. Big help Without knowing what the market will do, we have to disregard that and try to be successful no matter what it does 1. Find stocks that have been beating the market 2. Study your own stocks and get to know if you have made or lost money on them in the past. I have a long mental list of those(losers) and sometimes buy a few but veeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeery carefully. Today I got suckered into Yhoo calls again, but only 5 at $20 each. I only owned them a hour before it started down. Another would be Qcom, and Intc, and Msft, I cant seem to get in sync 3. But I have been murdering these recent earnings stocks on declared splits, on 100% plus revenue growth. Thats CAT, and BER, and NTE, and NTES, and SINA .and SOHU,and TSCO There is no way whatsoever that I can usefully explain what to do with them. I bgt the CAT calls one day, sold them the next Bgt the BER calls, they sold them 2 days later, bgt the NTE calls twice, rolled them out, then sold !/2 of them. Still buying a few Jnpr calls, no more Fdry or Beas. Today I sold 400 China, 250 AGI, I agi call, I tsco call And I dont sell them because they dont do well, I sell to either reduce margin or to buy mo-mos. Bgt 6 yhoo calls, 2 ntes calls, 1 Sohu call, and 80 shrs NTES, Placed GTC orders to sell Tsco at $2 up and $3 up from todays open It strange that the only stock I would dare to guarantee to be a good LTBH stock is Dell, On other potential LTBH you have to make assumptions That their growth and earnings will continue, that they dont get bought out, that management stays in place that they dont get investigated by the Feds, that the housing or auto market does not collapse, and so forth. That should mean MSFT or INTC are potential LTBH You say, how does anyone decipher anything in this market? The only thing of importance is how you have done in the past month in this type of market If you are only even with the market, that is worrisome, and attempts should be made to find what mistakes were made ( thats usually miss reading some news from the churners ) . or expecting history to repeat on a tech stock If you are down, its time to cool it a bit, lighten the wagon, do more experimenting with a lot of trades with a small amount of money and gain experience at a much lower cost If you are up that is way cool provided you are beating the Nas gains in %. Sig

To: im a survivor who wrote (11031)	7/28/2003 11:06:45 PM
From: Selectric II	Respond to of 13815

I hear we just missed getting Suddham by less then 24 hours, and news reports say we may have him within a couple weeks. Well, maybe we do get him, or maybe he pulls a bin laden and just disappears. He has the money and means to disappear, thats for sure. If it weren't such a serious matter, I'd be amused by the reports of near-misses and critiques of why we haven't nabbed him. For perspective, consider how long it took our domestic police, in our "civilized" domestic country to capture and/or kill such people as the Unibomber, Ted Bundy, the Olympic Bomber, Versace's killer, etc., while the entire nation sat on edge. In fact, we never did catch the SOB who murdered OJ's ex-wife, and as a result poor old OJ was left to his own resources, having to personally search every golf course far and wide for the culprit. What if Saddam pulls a trick like Nicole Simpson's murderer, who disappeared in the midst of LA, one of the most civilized, populated cities in the world, where everybody was looking for him?

To: im a survivor who wrote (11031)	7/28/2003 11:34:58 PM
From: pbull	Respond to of 13815

OK, I'll take a shot at it: 1. A terrorist attack would chill the economy, and the Fed would be limited in how it could respond. But the damage would be short-term and would create opportunities. The effect on the markets of the attack on 9/11 was way overstated, in my opinion. But, sure, if you're leveraged, it would be a major event. 2. Capture of Saddam. A short-term pop of a couple of days, but not meaningful beyond that. The market will absorb that pretty quickly. I'm OK with the market here. The market and interest rates can rise at the same time, as they did in the 1960s. The trick is focusing on the best opportunities, which is exactly what Mr. Sig is trying to do. It's just that, for me, long term doesn't mean Thursday afternoon. I can't trade the way he does. But the Naz is definitely the place to be _ until it isn't. Sounds like Yogi Berra, doesn't it? PB

To: im a survivor who wrote (11031)	7/30/2003 12:33:58 PM
From: Sig	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13815

KG$ Looking for LTBH stocks, I have been able to hold this one for years GAC.TO , (or GEACF) which runs at a P/E of 8, and is around $5 Canadian, $3.86 US, down slightly at the moment , within buying range Lots of good contracts coming in. Some dont like it because of their statements they would concentrate on existing companies buying their product, but they sell plenty of updated software to important customers... Not a boomer, but lots of potential. Never worry about my investment in it, they will do OK. Sig