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Gold/Mining/Energy : Blue Chip Gold Stocks HM, NEM, ASA, ABX, PDG -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wade who wrote (754)	7/28/2003 9:44:45 PM
From: Louis V. Lambrecht	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 48092

Anytime I reply to a post, I always say that we are at a critical point. So, I don't mind to share. You would have guessed it, up or down.LOL. IMHO, cover short positions. Posted on Monday, July 28, 2003 - 7:22 pm: on marketswing.com with 10-YR price chart on the link. (Public posting area, the link should work) Niteowl, don't take me too litteraly. Am experimenting and setting rules. Still can post a (very rare) trend spotted by both standard error channel and forks. Problem with the standard error is that you know your anchor, but that it recalculates everyday. You could end up setting too many rules, resulting in too many trades. What the chart tell me: - both pitchfork traders and channel traders have the same long term bias, prices are up. - today's close is around a 2-yr horiz S/R .AND. on the lower error channel = critical price - FA: after bond market close, the Treasury announced their needs of credit for the coming quarters on the 2 5 and 10-YR. Markets could already have sold the rumor. - FA II: as the mortgage rates are very sensitive to the 10-YR yield, chances are the Treasury will try to get these prices up (=yield down) by understating their needs. Markets have no memory, and it could be better to postpone a certain amount in the auctions to further months. Hence, tomorrow open would be a risky trade (prices can test the lower tine or rebound on the error channel). Put an error channel on a chart, Oct top was at the upper band at that date and was a valid sell, not indicated by the pitchfork. June was less evident. But this evening, I would rather look at any sign for a reversal up. Certainly not shorting. Based on pitchforks and standard error channels. This is not the time to enter a position, but IMHO, this is the time to cover a short position.