When the biggest wild card is the voter
URL:http://www.jewishworldreview.com/0703/recall.asp
jewishworldreview.com | (KRT) The Republican-led bid to oust Democratic Gov. Gray Davis has set the stage for an unprecedented recall campaign that is certain to be one of the shortest, strangest trips in California political history.
Over the next 72 days, the Golden State will pioneer a new brand of hyperactive campaign far removed from the normal yearlong vetting process for choosing leaders.
First, potential candidates, whose numbers rise daily, have two weeks to decide whether or not they think they can run a $100 billion economy. The governor's would-be successors will then have 10 weeks to raise money, hire advisors, develop a game plan, produce campaign commercials, dig up dirt on their competitors, and - most importantly - figure out what they would do if they took the governor's office.
"It's going to be even worse than a beauty contest, it'll be a bad reality TV show: Who is going to be voted off the island - only we have to live with the results for three years," said Democratic consultant Bill Carrick.
The prospect of compressing what is usually a yearlong campaign for governor has left veteran political consultants scrambling to develop innovative ways to reach voters and allow their candidate to stand out in a confusing, fast-paced race.
"It's beyond challenging," said Republican Kevin Spillane, who helped run former Los Angeles mayor Richard Riordan's unsuccessful campaign for governor last year. "There are no words to describe how hard it will be."
Look at the state of affairs for George Gorton, the political strategist for Arnold Schwarzenegger who may be about to kick off the most closely-watched campaign in the world.
Gorton, a veteran consultant who has helped everyone from former California Gov. Pete Wilson to former Russian President Boris Yeltsin to victory, is all but twiddling his thumbs at home while he - and millions of people around the globe - wait to see if The Terminator decides to jump in. Gorton has a slate of veteran operatives ready to launch the campaign but, for now, Team Arnold is treading water, and Gorton isn't used to it.
Adding to the stress is that if and when Arnold does decide to run, the team will have to deal with an avalanche of reporters demanding to know where Arnold stands on everything from gay marriage to workers' compensation reform.
"Everything is quick," said Gorton. "Especially if you're a political consultant used to having polls and a staff of 60 to 80 people on your team 60 to 80 days before an election and - instead - you're sitting in your house by yourself."
While Schwarzenegger's consultants would like to jump in as late as possible to contain a media frenzy, that will also make it more difficult for Schwarzenegger to develop comprehensive policy positions and a solid fiscal plan.
But GOP consultants say the election will boil down to one issue: Has Davis failed as California's CEO and, if so, who will do a better job.
"Are you going to see a lot of detailed policy position on agriculture in San Joaquin County?" Spillane said. "I doubt it. What people are looking for is leadership and Davis hasn't provided it."
What the race looks like will depend a lot on who decides in the next two weeks to run for governor - and the circus has already begun.
Democrats and Republicans are trying to divine what the other side is going to do so each party can outflank the other. Davis is trying to boost his chances of survival by keeping high-profile Democrats from running. If he fails, Republicans want to make sure they don't miss their golden opportunity with a crowded GOP field that splits the vote a dozen ways and turns off voters.
Even if the parties maintain discipline, the ballot is likely to be befuddling. Anyone who collects 65 signatures and turns in $3,500 dollars can put his or her name on the ballot - a low bar that has everyone from a young Democratic Mountain View, Calif., software engineer to enigmatic Hollywood blond icon Angelyne contemplating a run.
"Californians deserve an alternative," said 26-year-old software engineer Georgy Russell, who already has a Web site and a light-hearted campaign slogan: "Brains, beauty, leadership."
The prospect of a long ballot filled with fringe candidates could go a long way towards scaring off Californians. Davis pollster Paul Maslin said voters in focus groups have been turned off when presented with a mock ballot filled with scores of candidates to replace Davis.
Fringe candidates aside, the field may still include a long list of well-connected contenders. Republicans are practically falling over each other to pick up filing papers and pay the $3,500 as the first steps on the road to candidacy.
Rep. Darrell Issa, the conservative San Diego-area Republican who spent $1.7 million to put the recall on the ballot, says he is running no matter what GOP leaders say. Los Angeles businessman Bill Simon, who came within five percentage points of beating Davis last November, is angling for another shot. Former Rep. Michael Huffington paid the $3,500 on Friday. And, if Schwarzenegger decides not to run, many expect Riordan to take a second shot at Davis.
The short campaign will aid those who have a plan and a big bank account. Davis has already shifted back into campaign mode. Simon and Riordan can dust off their 2002 playbooks and Issa can rely on his three-year record in Congress.
Those with a plan then need money to get the message out - and new state campaign finance rules will make it hard to raise the cash. Donors will be able to give no more than $20,000 each to candidates, so the top contenders may have to rely on their own personal fortunes.
In a twist, however, Davis and his allies will be able to raise unlimited amounts of cash because the new political reform laws don't apply to campaign committees set up to fight the recall.
The biggest wild card, though, is the voter. Even the best pollsters can't be certain who is likely to turn out on Oct. 7 for California's first-ever special recall election. Maslin predicts that Democrats will be so outraged by the Republican-led recall that they will turn out in force.
"Right now their choices are basically: right-wing crook, right-wing boob, supposed moderate that nobody knows what he stands for, and a cigar-smoking movie actor killer," he said. In the end, Maslin added, voters will vote no on the recall rather than take the risk.
But Republican pollster Frank Luntz predicted Davis will face what he calls the "mad as hell" voter - a large, disgusted, disgruntled group of Californians so frustrated with the governor's leadership that they are committed to throwing him out no matter who is on the ballot to replace him. Luntz said he has never seen a politician with such low approval ratings - hovering at about 20 perent - and that the campaign that can galvanize voters will win.
"Turnout is going to make the difference in this campaign and the intensity is weighing against Gray Davis," said Luntz. "They are more than just angry - they're absolutely apoplectic." |
