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Gold/Mining/Energy : Nuvo Research Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Montana Wildhack who wrote (12715)7/30/2003 1:37:22 AM
From: axial  Respond to of 14101
 
Wolf, I make the observation that DMX investors are reaching a point of divergence on the information front.

Differing information from DMX itself is creating different, even contradictory streams of thought.

I got a PM from an impeccable source last week, in which IR had given him two different stories on the CRO for WF10. We can see huge disparities in posted information, supposedly based on conversations with IR.

Where I'm seeing this reflected (and where it matters most) is in a lack of common expectations among investors.

Well, we're in the summer doldrums; the information vacuum centred on DMX continues to grow, and for the time being, I'm going to repress a certain amount of frustration. I'll come back to this.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

"The point of your sweeping tour is the opportunities ahead for WF10 I believe.

Let us hope that Rebecca will actually partner with at least
one and hopefully two of the indications that lay before
us here.

Going it alone is just too dammned hard without wads of
cash, good connections, and solid experience. The WF10
patent expires between 2017 and 2018 depending on the
country. That's a long time."


The point I hoped to make was that the range of conditions where WF10 could be licensed for further development suggests a significant cash cow. Just off the top of my head, without going to the research, let's name a few:

1 - MS
2 - Asthma
3 - Arthritis
4 - Alzheimer's
5 - Obstructive heart disease
6 - Lou Gehrig's Disease (ALS)
7 - Chronic Fatigue Syndrome
8 - Allergies

Each one of these conditions, in itself, has represented a significant therapeutic target, in some cases for as long as we've been alive.

The point: respecting our different perspectives, I see the licensing opportunities as large and significant.

The one problem I can see is: how would the use of WF10 be policed, so to speak? How would you set up licensing and deals so that each pharma who develops WF10 for a particular usage gets the appropriate revenue return?

If that problem can be solved, and once WF10's efficacy is established, I see either:

A - Very comfortable up front development fees - for each usage,

or...

B - Low up-front development fees and higher long-term returns to DMX

So where we diverge is in the potential financial impact, even before WF10 reaches all its possible applications.

The future is harder to see than it should be. Differing opinions welcome.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I've reached the point with DMX where I no longer see it as practical to extrapolate from the known, to the future.

DMX is an anomaly in this universe: the more you know, the less you understand.

Trying to respect the differing informational content and opinions among investors, I make the following observations:

1 - There damned well better be some substantive and credible management changes either by or before the AGM

2 - There damned well better be some news on the WF10 front that amounts to getting this product to market. Get this sucka movin'.

For the rest, I accept that Pennsaid sales will be good enough to take us close to break-even on operational (but not R&D) expenses - meaning we will have a big improvement on the burn rate.

Until Pennsaid is FDA-approved, I see Fungoff as only partially enabled. Full commitment to Fungoff R&D may expose risks before FDA Pennsaid approval that it wouldn't after FDA Pennsaid approval.

Jim



To: Montana Wildhack who wrote (12715)7/31/2003 12:05:31 AM
From: Cal Gary  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14101
 
Hi Wolf

I admit, I read your post several times. Like I do for so many of your other posts. :-)

Its so clearly written, why do I re-read? ;-)

It has chewable content, why do I re-read?

It's my opinion that Canadian sales are on a curve that
will top out above $20 million a year or so on a run
rate somewhere around May 2005 (2 years after launch).
This will equate to something around 4% of the estimated
market at that time.


Right now, I'd be happy learning about reaching the first 1% of market share. Celebrate. Then I'd like to know how many months it took to reach 1%. Celebrate. Then I'd wait for the next 1%.... lather, repeat...

I know that I could swing a deal to have the fungal product
developed and there's no doubt the money that's there is
huge.


Promise?! Make it so number one. Re-read.

Have a great night.

BTW more filler: I personally know, in the past 2 weeks 6 more people have come to experience "Pennsaid works, and works well!"