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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RR who wrote (58803)	7/30/2003 3:09:48 PM
From: Sully-	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

That stuff is not necessarily mind pollution. One needs to keep an eye on the horizon, even when you're mostly staying near the shore, only taking lots of short trips, rather than longer voyages. Sometimes those dark clouds will outrun you back to safety if you aren't paying attention. I'll admit that I let my longer term view affect my short term trading recently. Big mistake fer sure. Another was to ignore the old adage that when TA & FA don't jive, go with the TA. I hope you don't think all I see is doom & gloom in my posts. I think that GDP & the economy may improve going forward...... same for earnings growth. What I don't see is much evidence of a rapid expansion of GDP or the economy. Earnings growth is going to depend on a rapid expansion plus pricing power (still way too much excess capacity & growing global competition), along with a tame PPI (not the core - extremely high energy costs, rising commodity prices are a real drag on profits). With Cap Ex spending still not growing, IT spending flat to down, it's hard for me to make a case for even higher equities prices going forward after already pricing in blues skies for the 2nd half of this year already. To me, that's not doom & gloom. It's not seeing blue skies ahead. It's being practical based on what is happening & comparing it to what is expected & already priced in. Again, things seem to be improving.... just not at what I consider a blue skies ahead pace. I'm mildly bullish on the economy, yet fairly bearish on equity prices & P/E's. And if the market breaks out in here, it will be a signal that I need to ride the trend until the trend changes. :-\