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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (10750)	7/30/2003 5:06:32 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95463

Great article Kirk! But are we both reading the same article? The author says the VIX is the best market-timing indicator available for short-term traders today. biz.yahoo.com Of course extremes cannot be measured purely at 20 or 50 for the VIX! But they are certainly signposts along the way to extremes. The additional indicators he refers to are mostly based on the short term moving averages of the VIX itself. I think most of us here believe that if the VIX makes a sustained move in one direction it is all by itself predictive that the market will move in the opposite direction. As for the moving averages and the VIX? Last year I brought Dave Landry's thoughts on the 10% under the 10 day moving average for the VIX as potentially portending a rebound in the market to this thread and was met with a great deal of doubt. I however believe it works most of the time. The reverse is true as well. Most of the time. I think that the author of the article makes some tremendous points but we need data we can read daily. That CVR data is too difficult to find. I'm not signing up for his site and data that can only be found at day end. So instead I made these charts from which I hope you will study for free to see if you can see as I do the short term relationships between the VIX movement, put to call movements and the TRIN especially at extremes: investorshub.com Excellent article though! And thanks BWAC for the AMAT vs VIX chart as it shows without a doubt that the stock moves in the opposite direction to the VIX. Also thanks again to Gottfried on the sites he recommended and to Stan for starting this excellent discussion today. RtS