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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RealMuLan who wrote (36753)	7/30/2003 7:31:07 PM
From: BubbaFred	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Here is the first step to a potential trade war, boycott and tarrif imposition. The first step is an accusation and sensationalism to arouse fear and terror for the American public and political segments in Taiwan. I think PacRim and other Asian countries, including Australia and New Zealand will ask US to back off. Pentagon: China Aiming Missiles at Taiwan Wed Jul 30,12:34 PM ET By EUN-KYUNG KIM, Associated Press Writer WASHINGTON - China is acquiring short-range missiles much faster than U.S. officials had thought and is aiming the weapons at Taiwan and possibly at U.S. forces to block their use on the island's behalf in any future conflict, according to a Pentagon (news - web sites) report. "Preparing for a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait is the primary driver for China's military modernization," said the report on Beijing's military. The report, submitted annually to Congress, was released Wednesday. China has about 450 short-range ballistic missiles but is expected to increase its inventory by more than 75 missiles each year. The sophistication and accuracy of the missiles have improved, with the Chinese army developing longer-range models of the CSS-6 missile capable of reaching as far as Okinawa, Japan, home to more than 33,000 U.S. troops. A senior defense official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said China may be using Okinawa "to checkmate or deter or threaten U.S. involvement" if conflict erupts in the Taiwan Strait, which separates the Chinese mainland from Taiwan. The Pentagon estimated in last year's assessment that China's military had acquired 350 ballistic missiles and was adding them at a rate of 50 a year. The report also said China is spending far more on its defense budget than it has acknowledged. U.S. officials estimate the military budget which Beijing announced as $20 billion early last year actually falls between $45 billion and $65 billion, and the report noted a potential for annual spending to increase three or four times by 2020. The modernization of China's military, under way for several years, appears to contradict Beijing's stated desire for a peaceful resolution of the reunification dispute over Taiwan. Taiwan split from the mainland in 1949 after Nationalist Chinese leaders fled there following the communist victory in China. Beijing considers Taiwan a renegade province and has threatened to retake the island by force if necessary. U.S. policy is to help Taiwan maintain a defense capability, but Washington does not favor Taiwanese independence. The Pentagon report also highlights China's acquisition of Russian-made submarines that could be used to cut off sea access to Taiwan and threaten American forces that might respond. For the fourth year in a row, China bought $2 billion worth of weapons from Russia, at least double its annual procurement from Moscow over the previous decade, according to the report. "China's force modernization program is heavily reliant upon assistance from Russia and other states of the former Soviet Union," the report said. "China hopes to fill short-term gaps in capabilities by significantly expanding its procurement of Russian weapon systems and technical assistance over the next several years." story.news.yahoo.com

To: RealMuLan who wrote (36753)	7/30/2003 8:54:27 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

I would have thought the with the mainland's economic growth rate, that a union with Taiwan would become inevitable as the two economies integrated and the legal system in China evolved to include better defined property rights and individual rights. I would also expect that China would use HK as an experimental zone, to see how well different degrees of democracy worked, and then avoid the failures and duplicate the successes. Prehaps one of my basic assumptions is wrong : I would assume that having delivered record setting economic growth in the past 15 years, the CCP would feel secure both as a government and of their place in history. They are the leaders under which more people were lifted from poverty than any other time in human history...