To: goldsheet who wrote (95680 ) 8/1/2003 12:27:32 AM From: pibi Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 117016 The gold bosses on gold By: Tim Wood Posted: 2003/07/31 Thu 21:13 EDT | © Mineweb 1997-2003 NEW YORK -- AngloGold [AU] and Newmont [NEM] usually have the most to say about the gold market in any quarter and this one was no exception. Pierre Lassonde, president of Newmont, noted that despite Europe entering its high holiday season with Italy’s jewellers effectively out of the market, gold had recently ramped back toward its heavy resistance line at $370/oz. “People are asking me what’s going one,” said Lassonde. “The short answer is that 80% of the move is due to the weakness of the US dollar. Weaker dollar more US reflation is good for gold. “Also, in its latest pronouncements, the Fed has said it is willing to cut interest rates to zero and will keep them their for as long as is needed… to get President Bush re-elected. The message is very clear and the gold market has picked up on that. “Longer term, I’m sure you’ve read in the various publications that the US has a trade deficit against the yen and renminbi of about $200 billion a year. The Chinese want to keep the renminbi from appreciating so they are buying as much as $600 million everyday and that is unsustainable. If you put the two together, China and Japan’s reserves will touch $1 trillion. What cannot go on forever must stop. That, more than anything else, will continue the gold bull market that we have been experience for the last two and half years,” he added. Kelvin Williams, marketing director for AngloGold, had a characteristically more sober review. He noted the considerable price volatility this past quarter with gold showing a $56/oz range whilst currencies were just as unsettled. “With the exception of the spur to the spot price at the time of the announcement of Newmont Mining’s offer of settlement to the Yandal creditors, the gold price was driven mostly by movement of the US dollar against the Euro. The weakening dollar has been good for a range of commodities, including base metals and oil, but investor and speculator interest has been particularly focussed on gold as the most consistent beneficiary of the weaker dollar, Williams wrote in his quarterly review. He cautions against the most optimistic (or pessimistic depending on your perspective) view of a euro rising as high as dollar falling as low as $1.40, a 17% increase. “These forecasts seem to ignore some of the fundamental weaknesses in the European economies today (particularly as a stronger euro will continue to squeeze growth in Europe), which would argue against further strengthening of the common European currency.” However, he shared Lassonde’s concern about China and Japan.”However, the reality is that many of the Asian economies – Japan and China especially – are resisting the re-valuation of their currencies against the dollar by actively buying US bonds, and as a result the Euro might well have to bear a disproportionate burden of the market’s concerns over the US dollar. For that reason, the Euro could move to an overvalued exchange rate against the dollar,” said Williams. “We simply believe the currency trend is in our favour in the gold market,” he added on an investor conference call. Where Lassonde was content with quiet Italy, Williams was anxious: “Italian offtake for the first quarter of 2003 declined by 27% year-on-year, and there are indications that consumer offtake of gold jewellery in the USA has been weak. “Higher prices have negatively impacted physical offtake. This is so in the developing markets, particularly in India where we saw an almost complete halt to gold imports during the gold price rally in late May and early June. “The developing market is very responsive to gold price movements and we must trust that the underlying and fundamental interest in the metal is unaffected in the long-term.” “These changes should concern all gold producers and we all continue to work together to support the health of physical offtake. For the moment this weakness is compensated, however, in large part by dehedging by a number of gold producers,” Williams said. Addressing the Washington Agreement governing central bank gold sales, Lassonde reminded his audience that the agreement had come about because the banks themselves realised they were ill disciplined sellers. “The Agreement runs out in September next year and the banks have seen that it works. Clearly the gold price is a lot higher today although little of it has to do with the Agreement. But the change in sentiment when they did it was very important,” he said. “Is another Agreement needed? If you look at the market we’re in a very different situation than we were four or five years ago. The banks will debate whether or not they need an accord and whether or not if they had one, they would use it. A lot of central banks that were large sellers are out of it. The relevance of the Agreement is diminishing. All we need is some assurance that they will be disciplined sellers who understand the market,” concluded Lassonde.