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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Original Mad Dog who wrote (45533)	7/31/2003 6:15:50 PM
From: Lazarus_Long	Respond to of 57110

I see a lot of good things happening with the economy: The market has every confidence in that. The bears that aren't extinct are starving. Sarbanes-Oxley imposed rules make large frauds less likely to occur Till the bean counters and mouthpieces can find a way around them. Which will be not later than the next bull market top. I am amazed (still) that SO MANY people were surprised at all the cheating and funny business that was going down during the bubble. (What did they think "pro forma" and EBITDA meant? If they had good numbers by GAAP, they would have used GAAP!) This is bull market SOP, ferchrissakes! It happens every time. The zecks cook the books to get the stock price up so they can either take over or hold off someone else. The market crashes. Investigators, egged on by pissed off "investors", AKA gamblers who don't want to make the long trip to Vegas (hey, you really ought to come!) find the rotten brew they made and SCREAM. A few get hauled away in cuffs. Then the game starts again. The wreckage from past accounting scandals and misdeeds has largely surfaced and been dealt with Hmmmmm.......... Low consumer interest and tax rates make a consumer spending collapse in the short term very unlikely Hmmmmm..... What happens when all the refinancing and spend the proceeds stops? Does the music stop too? There are signs, albeit small ones, that business investment and capital spending may be awakening from their slumber True. For U.S. companies, the weakened dollar will help exports And increase the price of imports, such as oil, which is inflationary and has a negative effect on economic growth. I call that a wash. The market is still much lower than it was in the recent past, and thus arguably has room to go up significantly from here (though it has moved a lot in the past four months). The market thinks it's 1999 again. It ain't. This should concern you. stable election cycle The next election had better not be like the last one or there is going to h**l to pay.