Strategy Analytics on Q2 2003 Handsets:
Compare to IDC's numbers here:
Message 19168968
When Gartner Dataquest checks in I'll run a comparison of all 3 [And ARC Group]
Strategy Analytics Q1 & Q2 2003 Handset Shipments
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Q1 03 02 03
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Nokia 35.0% 37.0%
Motorola 15.4% 14.2%
Samsung 12.1% 10.8%
Siemen 7.4% 7.3%
Sony Ericsson 5.0% 6.0%
LGE 5.2% 4.8%
Other 19.9% 19.9%
* Nokia was the biggest gainer of the quarter, with its market share rising to 37 percent from 35 percent in the first quarter, gaining on its rivals in both the biggest market, for GSM phones, as well as the smaller CDMA segment.
* Nokia grew profits and market share. [Last quarter - Q1 2003 Nokia total shipments grew 18 percent with a strong GSM performance, while expanding profits nearly two percentage points year on year in an increasingly cost competitive global GSM market].
* Nokia's market gains represent a rise of 3.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year.
* Analysts said Nokia was on track to meet its long-term target of producing 40% of all mobile phones sold.
"We won't be surprised if Nokia hits its goal of a 40% market share sometime in 2004." - Neil Mawston, Strategy Analytics -
* SELL-IN: Global handset sell-in into channels grew at a healthy 11% rate year-over-year in the second quarter of 2003, down from the 16% year-over-year increase during Q1 2003. Strategy Analytics pegs 2003 03 Q2 sell-in at 110.9 units. [23.4% CDMA IF Qualcomm Q2 estimate is accurate. 23.0% if WRH+Co.'s is accurate]
* SELL-THROUGH: The effects of SARS in Asia, as well as pockets of economic instability limited total sell-through growth to a comparatively weak 6% year-over-year, resulting in 108.1 million units of sell-through and 3M units of added inventory. ... Strategy Analytics estimated that consumers bought 108.1 million mobile phones in the second quarter of this year, slightly up from the 102 million sold in the same period a year ago.
* Strategy Analytics said 220 million units were shipped in the first half [Sell-In]. In Q1 2003 Strategy Analytics estimated that 68.8 million GSM phones and 22.2 million CDMA handsets were shipped in the first quarter out of a total market of 108 million units.
* Strategy Analytics reiterated its 2003 forecast for a six percent rise in shipments of cellphones to 455 million, driven mostly by developing markets which need cheap phones. [Another source states ... ] ... For the full year 2003 it expects the global retail handset market to reach 458.4 million units, up just over 5% from last year.
* The average wholesale price per phone for the top six vendors is now around $140 versus $160 a year ago.
Sources for above with articles on Q1 2003 following them:
>> Nokia Edges Closer to 40% Target: Increases Handset Share
RTÉ News
OnBusiness
August 18, 2003
onbusiness.ie
Nokia strengthened its position as the world's leading mobile phone maker in the second quarter, when it shipped 37% of all handsets made, industry research published today showed.
This represents a rise of 3.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year, British consultancy Strategy Analytics said in its quarterly report on global handset shipments.
Analysts said Nokia was on track to meet its long-term target of producing 40% of all mobile phones sold.
'We won't be surprised if Nokia hits its goal of a 40% market share sometime in 2004,' Neil Mawston, an analyst with Strategy Analytics, said.
Nokia's increase came at the expense of its US rival Motorola, which saw its part of the wholesale handset market drop 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, to 14.2% in the second quarter.
The world's third and fourth largest mobile phone makers, South Korean conglomerate Samsung and Germany's Siemens, saw their market shares remain stable, at 10.8% and 7.3%, respectively.
Strategy Analytics estimated that consumers bought 108.1 million mobile phones in the second quarter of this year, slightly up from the 102 million sold in the same period a year ago.
For the full year 2003 it expects the global retail handset market to reach 458.4 million units, up just over 5% from last year. <<
>> Nokia Gains, Samsung Loses in Q2 Handset Market Survey
Lucas van Grinsven
European Technology Correspondent
Amsterdam
August 17, 2003
Reuters
forbes.com
Nokia and Sony Ericsson were the big winners of the global mobile phone industry in the second quarter, but overall growth slowed and inventories rose, a survey showed Monday.
On the other end of the scale, Samsung lost market share.
Increased sales driven by colour screens and camera phones as well as demand in emerging mass market India were offset by the crisis around the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) virus which hampered sales in large parts of Asia, particularly China, research group Strategy Analytics said.
The summer heatwave in Europe and lower phone subsidies by mobile operators in China added to concerns that the second half of 2003 might be slower than the first, the U.S. group said.
Sales from handset makers to distributors such as mobile operators and retail chains rose a firm 11 percent to 111 million units, but subsequent sales to consumers lagged and rose only six percent to 108 million units, it added. Sales growth slowed from the first quarter when shipments increased 16 percent from the year-ago period. Despite the deceleration Strategy Analytics reiterated its 2003 forecast for a six percent rise in shipments of cellphones to 455 million, driven mostly by developing markets which need cheap phones.
"Cheap phones continue to sell well, and prices are falling twice as fast in China than elsewhere due to heavy competition from new Asian vendors," said Strategy Analytics's Neil Mawston by telephone.
The average wholesale price per phone for the top six vendors is now around $140 versus $160 a year ago.
Nokia Gains, Samsung Loses
Nokia was the biggest gainer of the quarter, with its market share rising to 37 percent from 35 percent in the first quarter, gaining on its rivals in both the biggest market, for GSM phones, as well as the smaller CDMA segment.
Nokia's stronghold has always been the GSM sector, which represent some 65 percent of the world market, in which Nokia has 46 percent share. But this year it has added a range of CDMA phones to crack the markets in the Americas and parts of Asia.
It was a weak quarter for second-placed Motorola from the United States and third-placed Samsung Electronics from South Korea.
Motorola, which is big in hard-hit China, saw its share drop to 14.2 percent from 15.4 percent in the first quarter. It was close to 17 percent last year.
Samsung stopped dead in its tracks after a long hard run in recent years which propelled it into the top five. Its share fell to 10.8 percent, from 12.1 percent in the first quarter, as its mainstay Asian customers postponed orders. Because its phones sell at a higher price, Samsung's revenues outpaced Motorola's.
Siemens from Germany was hardly changed at 7.3 percent versus 7.4 percent in the first quarter, but well below last year's eight percent despite new, expensive models.
It was a turnaround quarter for Japanese Swedish joint venture Sony Ericsson. Its market share rose to six percent, from five in the first quarter, as its new camera and gaming handsets struck a cord with European and Japanese consumers.
Ericsson alone had a share of more than 10 percent only three years ago. The 18-month old venture now aims to be profitable with a seven percent share.
Up and coming LG Electronics from Korea, which also manufactures for Asian rivals, retrenched slightly. It fell to 4.8 percent from 5.2 percent in the first quarter. <<
Dow Jones take on this:
biz.yahoo.com
>> The report said 110.9 million handsets across all technologies were shipped in the second quarter, up 11% on the year. Strategy Analytics said 220 million units were shipped in the first half and despite a build up of inventory in the Asia Pacific region and unseasonably hot European weather in the third quarter, it remains optimistic that its full-year forecast of 454.5 million global shipments will be met. Growth in handsets supporting CDMA, or code division multiple access, technology grew 13% on the year due to stronger demand in China, North America and Japan. However, shipments fell 8% sequentially in the second quarter due to the impact of SARS in China. Growth in GSM, or Global System for Mobile, handsets was steady ay 13% on the year, driven by stronger demand in China and the U.S. <<
ARC Group sees 444 million units sell-through this year:
>> ARC Group predicts the entire mobile handset market to grow by 10.3 per cent with consumers buying 444 million mobiles by the end of 2003, up from 402 million in 2002. This trend is set to continue for the next five years, with handset sales forecast to reach 689 million by 2008, in line with subscriber growth. <<
>> Global Handset Market: 2Q 2003 Update
Author: Neil Mawston
Report Type: Viewpoint
Published: 08/03
Pages: 14
strategyanalytics.com
Summary
Global handset sell-in into channels grew at a healthy 11% rate year-over-year in the second quarter of 2003, down from the 16% year-over-year increase during Q1 2003. The effects of SARS in Asia, as well as pockets of economic instability limited total sell-through growth to a comparatively weak 6% year-over-year, resulting in 108M units of sell-through and 3M units of added inventory. CDMA sell-in grew 13% year-over-year but fell 8% quarter-over-quarter, as SARS and diminished handset subsidies in China slowed end-user demand. GSM sell-in grew at a healthy 13% year-over-year. SEMC grew sales 34% annually showing expected strength in the European market, while Nokia grew profits and market share. In this report, Strategy Analytics provides a detailed review of the financial and operational performance of the top six global handset vendors and also provides quarterly 2002 and H1 2003 shipments by technology by vendor for the top 14 global handset vendors. Global shipment (sell-in) and sales (sell-through) estimates for 2002 and 2003 are also included. <<
» Historical «
>> Global Handset Shipments Grow Healthy 16% In Q1 2003
Strategy Analytics
Boston, MA, USA
May 27, 2003
[2002/2003 Chart at link]
strategyanalytics.com
Shipments Up but Profits Down for Most Vendors
In its quarterly report, `Global Handsets: Q1 2003 Market Update,' Strategy Analytics reports that the first quarter of 2003 saw encouraging signs of growth in cellular handset sales, as both demand and sell-in growth was strong in major regions.
GSM shipments grew 13 percent and Nokia reaped the benefits. Nokia total shipments grew 18 percent with a strong GSM performance, while expanding profits nearly two percentage points year on year in an increasingly cost competitive global GSM market. CDMA shipments grew 49 percent year over year on strength in the Americas markets. Benefiting from this growth were Korean CDMA vendors Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics. LG recorded 81 percent shipment growth and revenues grew 41 percent.
"Shipment growth does not equal profitability," states Chris Ambrosio, Director of the Wireless Device Strategies Service at Strategy Analytics. "With the exception of Nokia, vendor profits were flat or declining. Shipment growth for the top 6 vendors was slightly faster than the market rate at just under 19 percent, but profits grew only 3 percent. Vendors still have a long way to go in improving internal efficiencies, and in developing and commercializing diverse handset portfolios."
Additional Findings:
- LG moved past Sony-Ericsson in both revenues and shipments. Strong exchange rates on the Euro prevented LG from exceeding Siemens in total revenues.
- Kyocera Wireless saw shipments surge 51 percent year on year on CDMA shipments into North America and China.
- Strategy Analytics maintains its projection of 455 million units sell-in in 2003.
- The strong Q1 performance is impacted by Asia-Pacific first quarter holiday season sell-in, and expects that this Q1 surge will become a seasonal trend as sales growth in China becomes a larger part of global sell-in. <<
SA On 2002 Handset Shipments (Sell-Through):
"Though not vintage, 2002 was a relatively good year for mobile phone sales. According to market research group Strategy Analytics, global handset shipments reached 417.3 million for the year, with the fourth quarter turning out to be stronger than expected."
[Gartner Dataquest reported 2002 Sell-Through as
Strategy Analytics is the single public source that has been cited as providing meaningful data points for CDMA handset sell through.
Strategy Analytics credited Nokia with 9.6% of CDMA handset sell-through (~7.8 million of 81 million total CDMA units) in 2002.
In May WSJ (David Pringle) reported Strategy Analytics view of Q1 2003 Handset sell-through:
* Strategy Analytics said Nokia had 35.1% of the total mobile phone market in the first quarter (against Nokia's sell through estimate of 38%. and IDC's 35.5%).
* Strategy Analytics estimates that Nokia supplied only 7.6% of the CDMA phones shipped in the first quarter compared with 11.3% in the same period a year ago.
* Strategy Analytics estimates that Samsung Electronics Co. of South Korea increased its share of the fast-growing CDMA market to 29% from 26.6%.
* Strategy Analytics estimates that 22.2 million CDMA handsets were shipped in the first quarter out of a total market of 108 million units (21.1% CDMA). Nokia had previously estimated only 98 million mobile phones were shipped by the industry in the first quarter. [Note: Qualcomm recieved royalties on 26 million CDMA handsets for March ending Quarter so their is a discrepancy here]
22.2 million CDMA Handsets [Sell-In] Q1 2003
Samsung 29.0% 6.438m
LG 20.0% 4.440m
Motorola 19.0% 4.218m
Kyocera 11.0% 2.442m
Nokia 7.6% 1.687m
Other 13.4% 2.975m
- Eric - |
