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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: skinowski who wrote (78225)	8/1/2003 6:10:44 PM
From: SwampDogg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

We will see on Monday. Days like today over the past couple of months have been followed by even stronger rebounds. There is obviously a lot going on here and it should be wild. My gut (and even a few gold equity charts) see a spike coming in the coming days. We shall see...

To: skinowski who wrote (78225)	8/3/2003 11:18:14 PM
From: GraceZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

I wonder - does anyone have a long-term chart of gold in inflation-adjusted prices? Here's a table with conversion factors to convert any price into 2003 dollars from 1800 onward: oregonstate.edu Combine that with long term gold prices: kitco.com You can see that the 1975 $185/oz gold price gets divided by .293 which yields a price of $631 in 2003 dollars. So with a closing price of $346 gold has lost 45% of it's value since 1975. But then if you go back to 1971, the last year gold was fixed at $35/oz, divide by the conversion factor you get $159/oz in 2003 dollars, so in that time frame, gold is ahead by 117%. From 1933-1971 it was illegal for private citizens to own gold and the price was fixed at $35. Which means a chart during that period is fairly useless, before 1933, gold was fixed against the dollar for 96 years at $20.76/oz. So now that you see it doesn't do much for you as a hedge against long term inflation of the dollar (All the adjustment occurred in the first nine years after the gold price was allowed to float and except for the last three years, it has declined in real dollar terms since 1980). Here's the greatest argument against holding gold as a hedge against a worldwide deflationary depression. April 5, 1933 President Roosevelt, acting under the sweeping authority passed to him by Congress on March 9, signed Presidential Executive Order 6102 which invoked his authority to make it unlawful to own or hold gold coins, gold bullion, or gold certificates. The export of Gold for purposes of payment was also outlawed, except under license from the Treasury. A year later he devalued the dollar against gold going from $20.76 to $35, but of course no private citizens were suppose to own any by then. January 31, 1934 The day after the passage of the Act, President Roosevelt fixed the weight of the Dollar at 15.715 grains of Gold "nine-tenths fine". The Dollar was thereby devalued from $20.67 to one troy ounce of Gold to $35.00 to one troy ounce of Gold - or 40.94%. The Treasury, which had become the possessors of all the nation's Gold on the previous day, saw the value of their Gold holdings increase by $US 2.81 Billion. The Treasury now "owned" the Gold, and no one else inside the U.S. was allowed to own any Gold except by the express permission of the Treasury. The new ratio of $US 35 was adopted at Bretton Woods in July 1944. The U.S. Dollar was made the world's Reserve Currency and the IMF and World Bank established in 1947. The now international ratio of 35 U.S. Dollars to one troy ounce of Gold lasted until August 15, 1971. the-privateer.com It was a sort of heads we win, tails you lose sort of move that governments have been famous for pulling off in times of crisis.