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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (36911)	8/2/2003 10:53:59 AM
From: Joe S Pack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay, Here is a view of one investor. Bonds are saying it all right now - they have been the real bubble.Money from bonds and trillions in Money market funds will fuel a huge equities re-evaluation this next year. Thus the theory behind recent "talking down" of bond market by GreenCrook in recent testimony is to force the "ocean of money' tied in the bond market to equity. -Nat

To: TobagoJack who wrote (36911)	8/2/2003 11:43:21 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

wow, Jay, what compliments, I guess I better "waste" some time. I am also planning a visit to Yunnan and Halong Bay next Feb/March and may just have to swing by HK to buy you a drink. mbaa.org I have posted this link a few times in different places and I will do it again here. Sharing it with people who are in the real estate related businesses, they are all shocked by the numbers. While we all know that refi has been great, no one thought it was at this magnitude. I strongly suggest anyone interested to take a hard look at these numbers. Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley recently wrote something similar to your opinion. He said auto, real estate and capital expense are usually what lead an economic recovery. Auto and real estate are not going to lead this time without a bigger bubble in real estate or negative percent financing for autos. As for capital expense, the first time I ever heard of the term "excess capacity" was back in the late 1980s, when a toy manufacturing friend of mine from HK (with JV in China) told me that excess capacity is coming down the pipeline. The second time was back in 1997, when the Thai Bhat led to the Asian contagion. Today, nothing much has changed. In fact, it appears that the balance has tipped even more to the supply side than the demand for such capacity. Now we have a Fed Chairman's whose solution is to pump even more money into the equation. How is that going to work, aside from jawboning the ignorant public into not only spending their last penny but also mortgaging their future? I feel sorry for those in their 50s who are suckered by Greenspan into this spend spend spend cycle. They are going to wake up one morning and realize all their retirement money has been spent while still facing a huge 30 years mortgage on their house with 20+ years left.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (36911)	8/2/2003 3:21:47 PM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Respond to of 74559

Hi Jay, Interesting thoughts... thecommstockreport.com KJC

To: TobagoJack who wrote (36911)	8/2/2003 3:35:59 PM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello again Jay, There is a new trading system called Market Access. I believe that the gentleman who originally wrote the e-mail to Fleck is talking about "Market Axess", which is the new tool for trading of corporate debt (maybe government debt as well, though GD used to be handled by TradeWeb). Anyway, Market Axess allows for something akin to a bid/ask system very similar to stocks, where everything can be seen at once, and bond dealers/portfolio managers are now forced to compete with one another as well as traders. At the same time, savvy Wall Street traders with access to the system (in theory anyway) will be able to front run the entire bid system (should they choose to do so, and should it not be illegal to do so and should these folks decide to stay well within the laws/guidelines). Basically it means that the bond system is far more transparent in pricing than it used to be, which means that smart bond managers such as Pimco's Bill Gross will now have a more difficult time buying winners and dumping losers because everyone will have access to the same information Bill Gross has, and therefore not as willing to trade at prices that might be considered as premium to the underlying risks. KJC