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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (342)	8/2/2003 6:49:01 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Talking heads - Treasury Yields A rise in U.S. Treasury note yields that has pushed them higher than those on most European government bonds helped drive the dollar higher against the euro. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield has risen to 4.39 percent from a 45-year low of 3.07 percent in mid-June. The yield exceeds that of the 10-year German government bond by 20 basis points. At the beginning of the month, the bund yield was 40 basis points higher than the Treasury note's. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. ``The euro has relied very heavily on fixed-income flows,'' said Steven Saywell, a currency strategist at Citigroup in London, the second-largest currency trader, according to Euromoney magazine. ``The euro was the biggest winner from bonds and will be the biggest loser.'' Temporary Gain Since declining to a record low against the euro of $1.1933 in May, the dollar has gained about 5.9 percent. The dollar's recent gains may prove temporary as slow growth and rising U.S. federal budget deficits combine to discourage foreign investment in the U.S. ``I'm viewing it as a correction of a longer-term downtrend,'' ING's Spence said. To the extent U.S. Treasury yields are rising because the federal budget deficits are growing, ``that's going to ultimately create unhealthy markets, which down the road will definitely take its toll on the dollar,'' Spence said. He expects the dollar to weaken to at least $1.25 per euro over the next 12 months. The yen may fall after Zembei Mizoguchi, Japan's vice finance minister for international affairs, said his country's currency was ``in no condition to strengthen.'' The Bank of Japan sold 2.03 trillion yen ($16.9 billion) in July to prevent it from rising, bringing total sales to an annual record of 9.03 trillion yen, a Ministry of Finance report said yesterday. The ministry directs the central bank to buy or sell yen in the currency markets. The sales, more than twice the highest estimate among 10 traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, helped the dollar gain 1.1 percent this year against the yen. ``Japan's obviously been successful,'' said Marshall Gittler, currency strategist in Tokyo at Deutsche Bank AG, the third-biggest trader in the daily $1.2 trillion currency market. ``The proof is that the dollar is at 120 yen and not 110.'' Last Updated: August 2, 2003 09:31 EDT

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (342)	8/2/2003 8:08:28 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 110194

<I do not discuss personal trades nor specifically recommend stocks, long nor short. These forums are great for exchanging some research and ideas so each of us can take appropriate actions that suit us best.> Of course... and thanks for you input. <The industry has NEVER had a run like this.> Interesting how amazing it's really been. <If we cannot deflate the real estate and refi bubble gently, the hard landing could be very very hard.> Having just recently visited the 'bubble art' exhibit at the local museum, I can assure you that it is very difficult to "deflate a bubble gently". :) DAK

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (342)	8/3/2003 2:12:53 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Signs that there will be more money to buy homes <GG> from bls.gov The average workweek for production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.1 hour in July to 33.6 hours, seasonally adjusted. The manufacturing workweek was down by 0.2 hour to 40.1 hours,and manufacturing overtime was unchanged, at 4.0 hours. (See table B-2.) The index of aggregate weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls fell by 0.4 percent in July to 98.3 (2002=100). The manufacturing index fell by 1.1 percent over the month to 93.9. (See table B-5.) economic growth ? what are those guys smoking ??