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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (36918)	8/2/2003 6:05:03 PM
From: Joe S Pack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

A simple anticipated percentage can be estimated if J6Ps stop refi as soon as the interest rate is above their current rate band, which I think may not be far off. Almost all are recently refied. That may translate conservatively to 60+ percentages. -Nat

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (36918)	8/2/2003 6:24:34 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

mbaa.org This was MBAA's projections a few weeks ago. I personally think they are dreaming even back then. With the events of the last couple of weeks, we won't even see $3+ trillion for 2003. If rates go up, I doubted if we will even see $1 trillion next year. Summary • The economy will achieve annual GDP growth of 2.2 percent in 2003, 3.6 percent in 2004, and 3.8 percent in 2005. • Unemployment will be at 6.3 percent ending 2003, 5.9 percent ending 2004, and 5.6 percent ending 2005. • The 10-year Treasury rate will end 2003 at 3.9 percent, end 2004 at 4.5 percent, and end 2005 at 5.0 percent. • Annual home sales will reach 6.825 million units in 2003, 6.577 million units in 2004, and 6.399 million units in 2005. • Home-price appreciation will continue slowing, but remain positive. • The 30-year FRM rate will end 2003 at 5.7 percent, end 2004 at 6.1 percent, and end 2005 at 6.7 percent. • Mortgage production volume will slow from $3.39 trillion in 2003 to $1.937 trillion in 2004, and to $1.455 trillion in 2005.