For Edwards, Time to Play Catch-Up
Democratic Candidate's Rush to Raise Money Left Him Campaigning From Behind
By Jim VandeHei
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, August 3, 2003; Page A05
NASHUA, N.H. -- Sen. John Edwards (N.C.), after raising more money than all but one of his eight rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination, is struggling to turn money into momentum on the crowded campaign trail.
Edwards's gamble to raise money first, campaign later has left him far behind the front-runners in recent polls conducted here and in Iowa, the first two key testing grounds in the Democratic primary. Nationally, the first-term senator barely shows a pulse in surveys so far dominated by seasoned veterans such as Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (Conn.) and the antiwar, e-campaign of former Vermont governor Howard Dean. At town hall meetings here last week, Edwards sounded like a candidate playing catch-up -- yet one confident he can make a late break because so many voters remain uncommitted.
"I spent the first six months of this year, a huge part of my time, raising money," he told a small group of Democrats at a town hall-style gathering in the woods of Greeley Park here last weekend. "Now my job is to make sure voters see me and hear me and know what I am about."
Because he is the neophyte among the contenders, with only four years of experience as a senator, Edwards made a calculated risk to essentially go underground for the first six months of this year to prove his viability by raising presidential-caliber money. Edwards passed that test with flying colors: He raised more money than any other Democrat in the first three months and now has more cash to spend than everyone save Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.), $8.1 million. Much of it came from fellow trial lawyers, but at this point in the contest, money is money, Democrats say.
At the same time, though, he seemed to fade and allow the campaigns of Kerry, Dean and Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (Mo.) in particular to take root here and in Iowa and sprout large networks of supporters. The result: During recent interviews with dozens of voters in Iowa, few knew much if anything about Edwards, and none listed him as a top-tier candidate. Many of the most active Democrats have signed up to help other campaigns.
In a primary that has more well-funded participants and is starting earlier than most in history, it is unclear how badly Edwards has hurt himself -- if at all -- by making a belated bid for the two earliest prizes. Polls show many Democrats are undecided on a candidate, and no one has emerged as a clear front-runner, which strategists say bodes well for Edwards.
Edwards is looking to make up for lost time by being the host of more than 30 town hall meetings in July and August. These forums, which typically draw several dozen Democrats, allow Edwards to work the room informally, field questions from voters and zero in on each individual as he stares into their eyes, demands they give him their full name and answers them with a frankness that seems to leave most with a sense he is genuine and sincere.
He is planning to dip into his campaign bank soon to fund his first ads in Iowa and, perhaps, New Hampshire. With his good looks and a warm courtroom presence, Edwards, 50, comes across better than most candidates on television, according to Democratic strategists. This could provide Edwards a much-needed lift in the dog days of summer. At the least, it will give many Democrats their first look at the candidate.
He is also planning a family bus tour with his wife, Elizabeth, and children Catharine, 21, Emma Claire, 5, and Jack, 3. All of these moves are designed to showcase what Edwards's fans consider his greatest asset: his ability to connect with voters on a down-to-earth, personal level.
"If you look at the field, Edwards is positioned as well as any for a magic moment, when the rationale for this candidate crystallizes," said Joe Lockhart, President Bill Clinton's former spokesman. Lockhart has contributed money to the Edwards campaign, but remains uncommitted in the race. "He's the only one who asked" for his money, he said.
Gephardt, who like Edwards is running as a self-styled populist and targeting blue-collar activists, said the North Carolina Democrat has shown no signs of busting through in Iowa. "He is a good man and he's working hard, and that may happen," Gephardt said in an interview. "But I don't see that happening now. I don't see it in any of the polling or anecdotal evidence." Polls show Gephardt is leading in Iowa, even though his campaign fell more than $1 million short of its fundraising goal for the past three months.
Edwards's advisers talk of a gradual rise up starting now and with high hopes of peaking later this year, when more voters start paying attention. In an interview, Edwards said that by the time voters make up their minds, "they will be looking for character, looking for vision and looking for person with solutions," which he thinks he provides.
The Edwards campaign does not necessarily expect to win either Iowa or New Hampshire in January, but it hopes to place high enough to stay alive into February. At that point, the contest moves quickly to the South, to places such as South Carolina and Oklahoma and out West, where Edwards's emerging brand of southern centrism is an easier sell. While most successful campaigns of recent history relied on top three showings in Iowa and New Hampshire to build momentum, Edwards and Lieberman are banking on big momentum swings during the first seven days of February, when nine states hold their primaries. Edwards sees South Carolina, where he was born, as a must-win and is spending considerable time and money in Arizona and other states getting less attention now from the major candidates. Those states are "enormously important," he said.
Edwards is trying to position himself as the centrist in the field, with a heavy emphasis on the personal and fiscal responsibility themes popularized by Clinton in 1992 and 1996. This strategy was on display last Monday, when Edwards rolled out his health care plan, stressing it is the least costly one offered by a major Democratic candidate. It would provide coverage to every uninsured American younger than 21 but leave out millions of uninsured adults because, he said, the country can't spend a "fortune we don't have." Unlike Gephardt, he does not seek immediate universal coverage for every American.
"Edwards's campaign is certainly going in a direction we'd like to see the party go," said Al From of the Democratic Leadership Council.
Edwards called for a "new ethic of responsibility," saying "government has a responsibility to expand opportunity and live within its means." Unlike many populists, he does not rail against wealth. He readily concedes it will be difficult for him, a multimillionaire trial lawyer before running for the Senate in 1998, to campaign against the well-to-do. Rather, he created an economic plan that in his words "rewards work, not wealth."
While Dean and Gephardt want to roll back all of President Bush's tax cuts, Edwards would keep many of them and cancel only those tailored to the rich. He would undo Bush's plans to lower the top two income tax brackets and trim the taxes on dividends and capital gains. For people making $350,000 or more, he would raise the capital gains tax from the 15 percent supported by Bush to 25 percent.
At every stop last week, Edwards pointed to Warren Buffett's admonition that there is something wrong when a billionaire pays a lower tax rate than his secretary. Edwards proposed taking some of the savings from repealing the Bush tax cuts and offering a few fresh tax cuts for the middle class: a $5,000 credit for first-time home buyers and new savings incentives. The logic, in theory, is similar to Clinton's 1993 economic stimulus plan, which increased taxes on the rich but reduced them on the middle class and the working poor. Many Democrats believe that balance is a key to economic growth.
Yet, while Edwards emulates both the centrist theology and personal, southern charm of Clinton, many Democrats believe the freshman senator is too inexperienced to win the White House in a campaign colored by terrorism and war. At town hall meetings last week, Edwards hardly mentioned foreign policy in his speeches and, said Roy Goodman, a Democratic voter here, "his Web site is lousy on it." After pressing the candidate on the matter, Goodman sounded impressed by Edwards's thinking on international matters but, like several voters interviewed in the state, not enough to jump on an Edwards bandwagon.
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